| 摘要(英) |
For a long time, a lot of people have had the understanding of a lot of difference angles all the time to the influence on the stock market of Taiwan of the major event, someone assays with the literary composition surface of the overreaction or the uncertain information hypothesis, someone verifies the stock market of Taiwan with the view of the efficiency market too, but the new developing financial school of behavior directs against Fama efficiency market’’s dispute constantly in recent years. This research wants to do the discussion to the political impact on stock market of Taiwan of topic , with “two states” theory , “One country on each side theory” and “against separation law” wait for for three times two sides topic deliver for the example, whether assaying has apparent stock price that reacts to influence to China’’s concept share , and check and verify the efficiency of stock market of Taiwan with three pieces of different time in recent years.
In addition, this research wants to want to know “two states” theory and “One country on each side theory” is speeches of “independence of Taiwan” put forward by the Taiwan authorities on the senior level, and “against separation law” is the speech released by the Communist Party of China authorities “The unified one”, but it is this focal point cared about of research whether impact caused of stock market of Taiwan is consistency, whether it is its influence to probe into and CAR different financial rates afterwards.
This research uses the event study to calculate out China’’s concept share and there is apparent AR and CAR in three incidents first , whether and then there is apparent difference in the average CAR brought to assay three incidents by melting in the Randomized Block Design, it is replied with the cross section regression analysis that finally analyses whether more different financial rates have influence of showing in CAR.
The result of study shows, in “two states” theory and “One country on each side theory”, the impact to China’’s concept share, all it is first it cause apparent negative significant AR and then have positive AR. The “against separation law” doesn’t cause any significant AR, so later rebounding quotations did not appear either. In addition, look by CAR , “two states” theory and “One country on each side theory” cause CAR to China’’s concept share apparently, and “against separation law” has not caused apparent CAR to China’’s concept share . Use and melt in the Randomized Block Design and assay three incidents and find to the average CAR of burst of China’’s concept that there will be CAR within 15 days in the future in CAR(0, 5) and CAR (0 , 6 ) have 0.05 significant of showing, the rest do not have any that is produced showing the difference . In financial rate, Total Asset (TA ) , the total rate of returns of assets (ROA ), the liquidity ratio (CR ) compare with debt asset ratio (LA), can not totally explain all industries. For the electron company, (TA ) ,(ROA ) and (LA) to have comparatively apparent explanation, but (TA) is not positive in expectancy. And to in the general to be the sold inside the country for burst but speech ,have not lasting explanation strength four piece factor, but (TA) also as anticipated in relation. But the speech of and general to China burst for export, four factor is it explain strength , but (ROA ) and as to the relation as expectancy (CR ) to have too. |
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