自願揭露盈餘預測對分析師預測的影響：以最終控制股東股權治理結構分析

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姓名

陳育靖(Yu-ching Chen) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

企業管理學系

論文名稱

自願揭露盈餘預測對分析師預測的影響：以最終控制股東股權治理結構分析
(The relationship Analyst forecast accuracy and voluntary earnings forecasts :ultimate controlling shareholder’s ownership structure test)

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摘要(中)

本研究旨在探討公司所有權結構，是否會影響管理當局自願性財務預測的品質，以及自願性財務預測對分析師預測的影響。本文承襲La Porta et al.（1999），以投票權與盈餘分配權的偏離程度，作為代理問題的衡量指標。實證結果發現，公司最終控制股東投票權與盈餘分配權偏離程度較小的公司，自願性盈餘預測較準確。此外，自願性盈餘預測具有資訊價值，可普遍降低分析師預測的誤差與離散程度。最後本文亦發現投票權與盈餘分配權偏離程度較大的公司，分析師預測的誤差與離散程度降低較小。

摘要(英)

This paper explores the association among the corporate ownership structure and the quality of managerial voluntary earnings forecasts, and the association of managerial voluntary earnings forecasts and analysts’ earnings forecasts. Following La Porta et al. (1999), we measure the magnitude of agency problem with the deviation of controlling shareholder’s voting rights from cash flow rights. The empirical results show that when the degree of this deviation is smaller, the managerial voluntary earnings forecasts are more accurate. Furthermore, for firms with smaller deviation of voting rights from cash flow rights, the analyst’s average forecast error diminishes more after managers voluntarily declare earnings forecasts.

關鍵字(中)

★ 分析師預測
★ 自願性盈餘預測
★ 公司所有權結構

關鍵字(英)

★ Analysts’ forecasts accuracy
★ Voluntary earnings forecasts
★ Corporate Ownership structure

論文目次

第一章緒論..............................................1
第一節研究背景與動機....................................1
第二節研究目的..........................................3
第二章文獻探討..........................................4
第三章研究假說............ .............................6
第四章研究設計..........................................8
第一節研究對象及研究期間................................8
第二節控制股東股權結構變數之定義 .......................9
第三節研究方法.........................................10
第五章實證結果與分析...................................13
第一節基本統計量分析...................................13
第二節多元迴歸分析實證結果.............................16
第六章敏感度分析.......................................23
第一節分析師預測偏誤...................................23
第二節分析師預期管理或盈餘管理.........................24
第三節統一分析師預測的窗期.............................26
第四節控制股權結構特性.................................27
第五節分析師預測誤差及離散性變數之另一變數衡量.........27
第七章結論.............................................28
參考文獻................................................29
附錄....................................................34

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指導教授

曹壽民(Shou-Min Tsao)

審核日期

2007-5-28

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