| 摘要(英) |
In this research we collect the murdered people damage data and the strong motion data of the Chi-Chi earthquake, and propose concept of “coseismic” and “equal-population number”. We can construct fragility curves which were relation between strong ground motion index and mortality by means of GIS software. Further more we take the Chi-Chi earthquake as a study case to assess the mortality distribution.
During the process of setting up, there are three project that can make this research concept progressing greatly further, is (1) numbers of the seismic station, (2) decision of PGA in each donut, (3) compensate for fatality population of non-orientation. The scales such as (1)200,000, (2)100,000, (3)50,000 and (4)25,000 death tolls are used as equal-population number to decide the analysis regions. The result of study shows that the improvement of these three items has certain help in fragility curve of mortality, especially in compensate for fatality population of non-orientation . In this study, we also compared the traditional method with concept of “coseismic” and “equal-population number”. The result of study shows that the fragility curve is better by using the concept of “coseismic” and “equal-population number”, and the trend is very obvious too.
In this research we also find the confidence interval for fragility curve. Using different setting-up ways to estimate and prove in the main disaster area of the Chi-Chi earthquake. The research indicated that the estimation in most areas is quite good. In the area that the damage ratio of buildings is higher, it will underestimate obviously. This phenomenon state that anti-shaking ability of buildings directly influence mortality, even if the area in lower intensity. |
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