| 摘要(英) |
In recent years, there were several events of serious water shortage in Taoyuan area. The main reason is the typhoon which made turbidity too high to be treated for municipal water supply, and then caused water treatment plants to be shut down. The purpose of this research is to develop a model for risk assessment in water supply system and to draw up several general strategies on water resource allocation. Firstly, the data of water resources of Taoyuan area and operation rule of water treatment plant were collected and analyzed. Then a system dynamic model, Vensim, was applied to simulate the supply and the demand system structure of tap-water in Taoyuan area. At last, feasible policy was drawn up and water supply pattern in time of short-term water shortage was addressed.
This research proceeded simulation and analysis which aims at with forewarning or without forewarning condition. The mechanism of supply and hardware of facility were investigated. The result shows if water company is able to announce forewarning, it can achieve total water shortage households to reduce by 400~500 thousand households and results in total deficit rate to reduce 11~15% in south area of Taoyuan during Haitang typhoon. In addition, the research further points out that the capacity of water treatment plants of Taoyuan area are not sufficient enough to prevent water shortage events to occur, as well as cater the future’’s demand. It should crave to extend the existing capacity or additionally build new water treatment plant.
As for dealing with water shortage problem of terminal area of pipeline, this research proceeds analysis and discussion on the possibility of construct large-scale tanks of pure water in site. The result shows that it can effectively reduces the shortage. Total water shortage households is reduced by 480, 330 and 220 thousand households in terminal area of pipeline of south area of Taoyuan during Haitang, Matsa and Talim typhoon, respectively.
Finally, this research studies three scenarios of supply patterns: one day of supply then one day of no supply, two day of supply then one day of no supply, and three day of supply then one day of no supply. The result shows that because conversion of the pattern of supply cannot increase the amount of water supply, so it only has slight influence to water shortage condition. However, it alters the timing of shortage. It is suggested that the manager can simulate in advance by using the proposed model to investigate the efficient operation. |
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