預測與風險對於決策愉悅程度之影響

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李奕欣(Yi-Hsin Li) 查詢紙本館藏

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企業管理學系

論文名稱

預測與風險對於決策愉悅程度之影響

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摘要(中)

近年來，廠商會為了鼓勵消費者去預測各項比賽的結果，而特地架設網路平台，以供消費者們投票或是討論。研究發現，讓消費者在事前對未發生的結果先做預測，的確對消費者在觀賞賽事的進行及在事後對事件結果發生的愉悅程度有所影響。但是不確定性的存在同時也成為影響預測與愉悅程度之間的調節變數，所以本研究欲探討在不同風險程度下，對於參與過程愉悅程度的影響，以及消費者在不同信心程度下做預測，對於參與過程愉悅程度的影響。此外，我們在和別人一同預測時，別人選的答案和預測是否正確，也會影響我們對參與過程的愉悅程度，還有對自己選的答案的信心，所以本研究欲探討資訊揭露順序，是否顯著影響參與過程的愉悅程度，還有當面臨預測錯誤的情況，風險程度和結果的呈現方式是否會影響消費者的後悔情緒。
本研究發現：
一、消費者在「適度」的風險情境下，參與過程的愉悅程度最高。
二、消費者在高信心下參與預測，參與過程的愉悅程度最高；並且在高不確定性下，高信心的消費者對下注金額會有顯著提高。
三、消費者在「先猜後看」且當所預測的答案與別人是不相同時，在高不確定性下的愉悅程度是顯著高於低不確定性下的愉悅程度；消費者在「先看後猜」且預測的答案與別人不同時，在低不確定性下的愉悅程度是顯著高於高不確定性下的愉悅程度。

摘要(英)

Nowadays, many firms encourage consumers to make predictions about the outcome of an upcoming event. They encourage consumers to make an advance prediction of the likely winner by establishing their Web sites. Prior research suggests that consumers who make an advance prediction will influence the enjoyment of experience. The degree of uncertainty about the outcome of an event will moderate the effect of making a prediction about the outcome of the event on the enjoyment of watching the event. In this article, we aim to test the level of uncertainty about the outcome of the event in determining how predictions might affect enjoyment. Furthermore, we often make predictions with others at the same time. People who choose different answers will not only affect the enjoyment of experience but also affect the confidence on answer. We examine whether knowing others’ answers before or after making our own decision will affect the enjoyment of experience as well as if uncertainty and the presentation of results influence our experienced regret when making an incorrect prediction.
In our studies, we find that (1) Consumers who make prediction in「medium」level uncertainty have the highest enjoyment of experience. (2) Consumers who make prediction with high confidence have higher enjoyment of experience, and consumers who make prediction in high uncertainty with high confidence will bet more money in the gamble. (3) Consumers who make predictions in advance and see another’s options are different from ours, the enjoyment of experience in high uncertainty significantly higher than the enjoyment of experience in low uncertainty; Consumers who watch other’s options first and choose the answer different from others, the enjoyment of experience in low uncertainty significantly higher than the enjoyment of experience in high uncertainty.

關鍵字(中)

★ 不確定性
★ 預測. 信心. 資訊揭露順序. 預期後悔

關鍵字(英)

★ anticipated regret
★ confidence
★ predict
★ uncertainty

論文目次

中文摘要 i
Abstract ii
致謝 iii
表目錄 v
圖目錄 vi
第一章緒論 1
第一節研究背景與動機 1
第二節研究目的 3
第三節研究流程 4
第二章文獻探討 5
第一節預測和愉悅程度 5
第二節不確定性對愉悅程度的影響 6
第三節信心影響對數字的調整 6
第四節預期後悔(anticipated regret)與共同預測 8
第五節預測失誤程度與後悔 9
第六節展望理論 9
第七節數字和百分比對消費者知覺影響差異 10
第三章研究方法 11
第一節研究架構 11
第二節研究假說 13
第三節研究設計 19
第四章研究結果 32
第一節資料分析方法 32
第二節樣本分佈 33
第三節假說驗證 34
第五章結論與建議 54
第一節研究結論 54
第二節理論意涵 58
第三節實務意涵與建議 59
第四節研究限制與對後續研究的建議 60
參考文獻 61
附錄一：實驗四之不確定性參考資料 64
附錄二：實驗一之正式問卷 66
附錄三：實驗二之正式問卷 73

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指導教授

林建煌

審核日期

2009-7-6

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