被忽略公司分析師盈餘預測行為之研究

以作者查詢圖書館館藏

、以作者查詢臺灣博碩士

、以作者查詢全國書目

、勘誤回報

、線上人數：45

、訪客IP：18.222.115.217

姓名

鍾岷宏(Ming-Hung Chung) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

財務金融學系

論文名稱

被忽略公司分析師盈餘預測行為之研究
(Analysts’characteristics and neglected firms)

相關論文

★ 金融商品會計對資訊攸關影響之探討	★ 建築業財務報表之剖析
★ 跨國企業重複課稅與租稅規劃	★ 從美國銀行之財務面分析次級房貸之影響
★ 系統整合業之再造－以C公司個案為例	★ 商業銀行競爭對分析師行為之影響
★ 公平揭露法案對被忽略公司的影響	★ 分析師股票推薦行為與投資人反應─從公平揭露法案探討
★ 證券法規對盈餘管理行為之影響：以中國上市公司為例	★ 盈餘管理與增發新股公司之營業績效：以中國上市公司為例
★ 承銷業務對證券分析師盈餘預測之影響	★ 經紀業務對分析師盈餘預測影響
★ 領導者或追隨者：被忽略公司分析師盈餘預測行為之研究	★ 合併報表與母公司財務報表差異對投資人之影響

檔案

[Endnote RIS 格式]

[Bibtex 格式]

[相關文章]

[文章引用]

[完整記錄]

[館藏目錄]

至系統瀏覽論文 ( 永不開放)

摘要(中)

本研究探討(1) 分析師能力和產業經驗與其追蹤被忽略公司決策的關連性，(2)追踨被忽略公司分析師的能力和經驗與盈餘預測錯誤及多期預測關連性，(3)市場對於追蹤被忽略的公司且具有不同能力與經驗之分析師預測修正之股價反應是否有所不同。
實證結果顯示，分析師追蹤被忽略公司決策與其經驗與能力有顯著正相關，而分析師追蹤被廣泛研究公司之決策與其能力則無有顯著正相關，因此，能力高和豐富產業經驗分析師會追蹤被忽略的公司。相較於能力低或經驗不足之分析師，能力高、產業經驗及公司經驗豐富之分析師追蹤被忽略公司時，能提供比較精確預測。如本研究預期，能力高和經驗豐富的分析師比較願意發佈較長期的預測。此外，本研究亦發現能力和經驗愈好的分析師發佈盈餘預測修正，市場股價的反應較大。

摘要(英)

This study examines whether the analysts’ coverage decisions are associated with their ability and experience. We also investigate whether the forecast errors and forecast horizon are related to analysts’ ability, industry experiences or firm experiences. The empirical results show that analyst coverage decisions for neglected firms are significantly positively related to their ability and industry experience. In contrast, analyst coverage decisions for most covered firms are insignificantly positively associated with their ability. We also find that high ability and more experienced analysts following a neglected firm can provide more accurate forecasts than analysts with low ability and less experience. This study also demonstrates that high ability and more experienced analysts prefer to issue longer-term earnings forecasts.
This study also examines whether the market’s response to revisions made by high ability and more industry-experience analysts who follow neglected firms will be larger. We find that the impacts on stock prices are significantly positively related to forecast revisions provided by high ability and more experienced analysts.

關鍵字(中)

★ 盈餘預測準確性
★ 市場反應
★ 多期預測
★ 分析師追蹤決策
★ 被忽略公司

關鍵字(英)

★ forecast accuracy
★ multiple period forecasts
★ and market reaction
★ Neglected firms
★ analysts’ coverage decisions

論文目次

Content
1. Motivation 1
2. Literature Reviews 4
2.1 Determinants of analyst coverage 4
2.2 Analysts’ experience and ability 6
3. Hypotheses 9
3.1 Analysts’ characteristics and their coverage decision 9
3.2 Analysts’ characteristics and their forecast performance 11
3.3 Analysts’ characteristics and their forecast horizon 12
3.4 Stock prices reaction to analysts who follow the neglected firms 12
4. Research Design 13
4.1 Analysts’ characteristics and their coverage decisions 13
4.2 Analysts’ characteristics and their forecast performance 17
4.3 Analysts’ characteristics and their forecast horizon 19
4.4 Stock prices reaction to analysts who follows the neglected firms 20
4.5 Data 22
5. Empirical Results 23
5.1 Descriptive statistics 23
5.2 Empirical results 33
6. Robustness Tests 39
6.1 The definition of neglected firms 39
6.2 Market reaction to forecast revisions 44
7. Conclusions 46
References 47

參考文獻

Ackert, L. F. and G. Athanassakos. 2003. A simultaneous equations analysis of analysts’ forecast bias, analyst following, and institutional ownership. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 30(7/8): 1017-1041.
Alford, A. W. and P. G. Berger. 1999. A simultaneous equations analysis of forecast accuracy, analyst following and trading volume. Journal of Accounting, Auditing, and Finance 14(3): 219-246.
Avery, C. and J. Chevalier. 1999. Herding over the career. Economic Letters 63: 327-333.
Barth, M. E., R. Kasznik, and M. F. McNichols. 2001. Analyst coverage and intangible assets. Journal of Accounting Research 39(1): 1-34.
Bhushan, R. 1989. Firm characteristics and analysts following. Journal of Accounting Economics 11: 255-274.
Brennan, M. and P. Hughes. 1991. Stock prices and the supply of information. The Journal of Finance 46: 1665-1691.
Chung, K. H. and H. Jo. 1996. The impact of security analysts’ monitoring and marketing functions on the market value of firms. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 31(4): 493-512.
Clement, M. B. 1999. Analyst forecast accuracy: do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter? Journal of Accounting and Economics 27(3): 285-303.
Fama, E. F. and K. R. French. 1997. Industry costs of equity. Journal of Financial Economics 43: 153-193.
Ferreira, E. J. and S. D. Smith. 2006. The effects of Regulation FD on analysts recommendation. Financial Analysts Journal 62(3):44-57.
Frankel, R. and C. M. C. Lee. 1998. Accounting valuation, market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns. Journal of Accounting and Economics 25: 283-319.
Hayes, R. M. 1998. The impact of trading commission incentives on analysts’ stock coverage decisions and earnings forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research 36: 299-320.
Hong, H., J. D. Kubik and A. Solmon. 2000. Security analysts’ career concerns and herding of earnings forecasts. RAND Journal of Economics 31(1): 121-144.
Hong, H. and J. D. Kubik. 2003. Analyzing the analysts: career concerns and biased earnings forecasts. The Journal of Finance 58(1): 313-351.
Jackson, A. R. 2005. Trade generation, reputation, and sell-side analysts. The Journal of Finance 60: 673-717.
Jacob, J., T. Z. Lys and M. A. Neale. 1999. Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts. Journal of Accounting and Economics 28: 51-82.
Lang, M. and R. Lundholm. 1996. Corporate disclosure policy and analyst behavior. The Accounting Review 71(4): 467-492.
Malloy, C. J. 2005. The geography of equity analysis. The Journal of Finance 60(2): 719-755.
McNichols, M. and P. C. O’Brien. 1997. Self-selection and analyst coverage. Journal of Accounting Research 35 (Supplement): 167-199.
Mikhail, M. B., B. R. Walther, and R. H. Willis. 1997. The development of expertise: do security analysts improve their performance with experience. Journal of Accounting Research: 131-157.
Mohanram, P. S. and S. V. Sunder. 2006. How has Regulation Fair Disclosure affected the functioning of financial analysts? Contemporary Accounting Research 23(2): 491-525.
O’Brien, P. C. 1988. Analysts’ forecasts as earnings expectations. Journal of Accounting and Economics 10: 53-83.
O’Brien, P. C. and R. Bhushan. 1990. Analyst following and institutional ownership. Journal of Accounting Research (Supplement): 55-76.
Park, C. W. and E. K. Stice. 2000. Analyst forecasting ability and the stock price reaction to forecast revisions. Review of Accounting Studies 5: 259-272.
Rajan, R. and H. Servaes. 1997. Analyst following of initial public offerings. The Journal of Finance 52(2): 507-529.
Stickel, S. E. 1991. Common stock returns surrounding earnings forecast revisions: More puzzling evidence, The Accounting Review 66: 402-416.
Stickel, S. E. 1992. Reputation and performance among security analysts. The Journal of Finance 47(5): 1811-1836.

指導教授

陳慧玲(Hueiling Chen)

審核日期

2007-7-6

推文