盈餘警示對其競爭者及上下游產業之市場反應

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姓名

方莉雅(Li-Ya Fang) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

財務金融學系

論文名稱

盈餘警示對其競爭者及上下游產業之市場反應
(The Impact of Earnings Warning on Firm's Rivals, Suppliers, and Customers)

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至系統瀏覽論文 ( 永不開放)

摘要(中)

本文探討當公司發佈盈餘警示時，其上下游產業對此消息的市場反應。我們以美國上市公司為研究對象，研究期間為2006年，共1,190筆盈餘警示新聞。我們發現競爭對手、客戶以及供應商對盈餘警示的結果可分為競爭效果以及傳染效果。當公司發佈好消息時，競爭對手、客戶以及供應商報酬顯著為負，表示競爭效果較為強烈。在壞消息方面，結果顯示傳染效果較為顯著，亦即競爭對手與上下游的超額報酬為負。另外，儘管我們並未找到一致的變數，我們仍發現當警示公司發佈好消息時，其市占率與供應商呈反向關係，符合購買者權力假說。

摘要(英)

We examine the wealth effects of earnings warning on rivals, and the warning industry’s supplier and customer industries. This study is based on a sample of 1,190 pre-announcements issued in 2006. Our results indicate distinct industry responses for good news and bad news. In good news disclosures, warning firms generate a dominant competitive (or negative) effect for rivals, suppliers and customers. Bad news disclosures elicit a contagion response (or negative) in returns. In addition, although cross-sectional tests show less consistent results, in good news disclosures, we find suppliers’ returns are negatively associated with warning firm’s market share, which supports buyer power hypothesis.

關鍵字(中)

★ 供應商
★ 盈餘警示
★ 傳染效果
★ 競爭效果
★ 客戶

關鍵字(英)

★ Customer
★ Supplier
★ Competitive Effect
★ Contagion Effect
★ Earnings warning

論文目次

1. Introduction 1
2. Literature Review 3
3. Hypotheses 7
3.1 Productive efficiency hypothesis 7
3.2 Buyer power hypothesis 8
3.3 Hypotheses link to earnings warning 8
4. Data and Methodology 11
4.1 Earnings warning sample 11
4.2 Define the customer and supplier 13
4.3 Methodology 15
5. Empirical Results 15
5.1 Abnormal return to the warning firms, warning industry, customers, and suppliers 19
5.2 Cross-sectional determinants of customer and supplier returns 23
6. Conclusion 25
7. References 27
Appendix 39

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指導教授

周冠男(Robin K. Chou)

審核日期

2008-7-7

推文