網路下單對投資行為與投資績效之影響

以作者查詢圖書館館藏

、以作者查詢臺灣博碩士

、以作者查詢全國書目

、勘誤回報

、線上人數：35

、訪客IP：3.133.12.172

姓名

黃品豪(Pin-Hao Huang) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

資訊管理學系

論文名稱

網路下單對投資行為與投資績效之影響
(The Impact Of On-line Trading On Invest Behavior and Performance)

相關論文

★ 企業再造或企業組織精簡--以一家無線電視公司為例	★ 銀行業的資訊系統危機管理
★ 平衡計分卡、企業智能在企業績效管理之角色	★ 資訊系統再造管理議題之研究-以臺灣證券集中保管公司存託系統為例
★ 客服中心資訊系統之管理	★ 以科技接受模式探討採用網路ATM因素之研究
★ 美容瘦身業導入門市銷售系統之關鍵成功因素探討	★ 台商在中國大陸與越南投資遭遇問題之比較研究
★ 飛機維護管理分散式資料庫整合平台之研究-以A航空公司為例	★ 經營環境劇烈變化下企業服務系統迅速開發專案管理之個案研究－以A公司為例
★ 資訊相關從業人員之宗教信仰強度對生命意義、感激與寬恕之影響	★ 部落格經營研究—社交智能對部落格社會互動與內容之影響
★ 資管教育讓資管學生了解企業管理問題嗎?	★ 社群網站自我揭露的社會抑制之研究-人情智能與成人依附之考量
★ 人情智能對感知的情緒貼圖使用恰當性之影響	★ 行動通訊軟體使用者的人情智能對社群互動，社群認同及社群信任之影響

檔案

[Endnote RIS 格式]

[Bibtex 格式]

[相關文章]

[文章引用]

[完整記錄]

[館藏目錄]

[檢視]

[下載]

本電子論文使用權限為同意立即開放。
已達開放權限電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的，進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。
請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定，切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送，以免觸法。

摘要(中)

網際網路改變了許多產業的商業模式，證券業也是其中之一。台灣自民國86年開放網路下單業務以來，使用人數即不斷增加，至今約佔市場總成交值的8%。網路下單一方面提供投資人豐富的資訊與手續費折扣，另一方面，也大幅降低券商的營業成本，使得新興網路券商如雨後春筍般的湧現。在美國，著名的網路券商像是嘉信理財（Charles Schwab）、E*trade等，不但以低廉的手續費爭取到不少的顧客，更迫使傳統券商龍頭美林證券（Merrill Lynch）於1999年開始提供網路下單服務，而台灣雖然由於法令的緣故無法有純網路券商的出現，但各大券商也紛紛推出網路下單的服務。
　　但是，就在投資人紛紛擁抱網路下單之際，有研究發現，網路下單會增加投資人的交易次數，而這一向被視為不利於報酬率的行為。因此，本研究即在探討網路下單是否會影響投資人的交易行為與績效，結果發現：
（1）使用網路下單的投資人多為年輕的男性。
（2）網路下單會造成投資人過度自信，且男性投資人比女性投資人更自負。
（3）網路下單會增加投資人在交易前的成本（資訊處理成本）。
（4）網路下單會透過自負程度來增加投資人的交易次數。

關鍵字(中)

★ 控制幻覺
★ 知識幻覺
★ 自負
★ 網路下單
★ 資訊處理成本

關鍵字(英)

★ Illusion of Control
★ Illusion of Knowledge
★ Overconfidence
★ On-line Trading
★ Information Processing Cost

論文目次

第一章緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究動機 4
1.3 研究目的 5
1.4 論文架構與研究流程 6
第二章文獻探討 8
2.1 網路理財概述 8
2.2 網路證券交易 10
2.2.1 網路券商 10
2.2.2 國內網路下單概況 11
2.2.3 網路下單的優缺點 12
2.2.3.1 網路下單的優點 12
2.2.3.2 網路下單的缺點 14
2.2.4 網路券商經營模式 15
2.3 行為財務學（Behavioral Finance） 16
2.3.1 行為財務學簡介 16
2.3.2 行為財務學的三大主題 17
2.4 自負（Overconfidence）理論 21
2.4.1 自負和金融市場 22
2.4.2 性別和自負 23
2.4.3 相關調查和研究 24
2.4.4 小結 25
2.5 知識幻覺（Illusion of Knowledge） 27
2.6 控制幻覺（Illusion of Control） 28
2.7 資訊處理成本（Information Processing Cost） 31
2.7.1 網路下單與資訊處理成本 31
2.7.2 資訊處理成本與交易次數 34
2.7.3 資訊處理成本與投資人特徵 34
第三章研究方法 35
3.1 研究架構 35
3.2 研究假說 36
3.2.1 網路下單對自負程度的影響 36
3.2.2 性別的調節效果 36
3.2.3 網路下單對資訊處理成本的影響 37
3.2.4 投資人經驗的調節效果 37
3.2.5 網路下單對交易次數的影響 37
3.2.6 交易次數對投資報酬率的影響 38
3.3 變數的定義與操作化 39
3.3.1 自變數：下單方式 39
3.3.2 中介變數 39
3.3.2.1 自負程度 39
3.3.2.2 資訊處理成本 39
3.3.2.3 交易次數 40
3.3.3 調節變數：投資人性別與經驗 40
3.3.4 依變數：投資報酬率 40
3.3.5 變數操作化方式與相關文獻彙整 41
3.4 問卷設計 42
3.5 研究設計 43
3.6 資料分析方法 44
第四章資料分析 47
4.1 基本資料分析 47
4.1.1 樣本來源之卡方檢定 48
4.1.2 網路下單比例之卡方檢定 53
4.1.3 小結 57
4.2 信度與效度檢定 58
4.2.1 信度 58
4.2.2 效度 59
4.3 統計假說 61
4.4 假說檢定 62
4.4.1 下單方式對自負程度的影響 62
4.4.2 性別的調節效果 62
4.4.3 下單方式對資訊處理成本的影響 63
4.4.4 投資人經驗的調節效果 64
4.4.5 下單方式對交易次數的影響 65
4.4.6 自負程度與資訊處理成本對交易次數的影響 66
4.4.7 交易次數對獲利率的影響 67
4.5 本章小結 69
第五章結論與建議 71
5.1 研究結論 71
5.2 管理意涵 73
5.3 研究限制 74
5.4 後續研究建議 75
參考文獻 76

參考文獻

中文部分
1. 王德蕙，「電子商務在產業價值鍊活動之影響：以交易成本觀點探討之」，交通大學科技管理研究所，1999年。
2. 張繼文、鄭巧婷，「e世代網路理財大趨勢」，商智文化，2000年。
3. 連欣怡、宋蕾蒂，「從美國網路下單看台灣發展趨勢」，資訊與電腦，2000年5月，頁51-55。
4. 陳建宏，「我國與大陸證券市場之現況比較與優勢分析」，臺灣證券交易所，2001年。
5. 陳榮吉、黃俊豪，「網際網路證券交易」，臺灣證券交易所，1999年。
6. 黃文俊，「網路下單投資者與網路券商滿意因素差異之研究」，中山大學企業管理研究所，2000年。
7. 黃俊英，「多變量分析」，中國經濟企業研究所，2000年。
8. 楊國樞、文崇一、吳聰賢、李亦園，「社會及行為科學研究法」，東華書局，1998年。
9. 蔡鴻璟，「韓國網路交易蓬勃發展原因探討」，臺灣證券交易所，2001年8月。
10. 蕭富元，「證券業網路下單稽核環境之研究」，淡江大學資訊管理研究所碩士論文，1999年。
11. 賴麗秋，「虛擬券商投資人的新管道」，統領雜誌，1997年12月，頁44-47。
12. 鍾淑娟，「國內網路券商運作現況與未來發展」，電腦世界月刊，1998年9月，頁76-82。
13. 龔怡霖，「行為財務學：文獻回顧與未來發展」，中央大學財務管理研究所碩士論文，2001年。
英文部分
1. Adler, A. (1930), “Individual Psychology,” In Psychologies of 1930. Edited by Murchinson, C., Worcester, Mass.: Clark University Press.
2. Alpert, M., and Raiffa, H. (1982), “A Progress Report on the Training of Probability Assessors,” In Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Bias. Edited by Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., and Tversky, A., Cambridge, U.K., and New York: Cambridge University Press.
3. Averill, J. R. (1973), “Personal Control over Aversive Stimuli and Its Relationship to Stress,” Psychological Bulletin, 80, 286-303.
4. Ayeroff, F., and Abelson, R. P. (1976), “ESP and ESB: Belief in Personal Success at Mental Telepathy,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 34, 240-247.
5. Balasubramanian, S., Konana, P., and Menon, N. (1999), “Understanding Online Investors: An Analysis of Their Investing Behavior and Attitudes,” Working Paper, University of Texas, Austin.
6. Barber, B. M., Lehavy, R., McNichols, M., and Trueman, B. (2001), “Can Investors Profit From the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns,” Journal of Finance, 56, 531-563.
7. Barber, B. M., and Odean, T. (2000), “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors,” Journal of Finance, 55, 773-806.
8. Barber, B. M., and Odean, T. (2001a), “Online Investors: Do the Slow Die First?,” Working Paper, University of California at Davis.
9. Barber, B. M., and Odean, T. (2001b), “Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment,” Quartely Journal of Economics, 261-292.
10. Baumann, A. O., Deber, R. B., and Thompson, G. G. (1991), “Overconfidence among Physicians and Nurses: The ‘Micro-Certainty, Macro-Uncertainty’ Phenomenon,” Social Science and Medicine, 32, 167-174.
11. Benassi, V. A., Roher, C., Reynolds, C., and Sweeney, P. D. (1981), “Illusory Control over Chance Events,” Replications in Social Psychology, 1, 24-26.
12. Benassi, V. A., Sweeney, P. D., and Drevno, G. E. (1979), “Mind over Matter: Perceived Success at Psychokinesis,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 1377-1386.
13. Beyer, S. (1990), “Gender Differences in the Accuracy of Self-Evaluations of Performance,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 960-970.
14. Bouts, P., and Avermaet, E. V. (1992), “Drawing Familiar or Unfamiliar Cards: Stimulus Familiarity, Chance Orientation, and the Illusion of Control,” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 18, 331-335.
15. Brehmer, B. (1990), “Strategies in Real Time Dynamic Decision Making,” In Insights and Decision Making. Edited by Hogarth, R. M., Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
16. Burger, J. M. (1986), “Desire for Control and the Illusion of Control: The Effects of Familiarity and Sequence of Outcomes,” Journal of Research in Personality, 20, 66-76.
17. Burger, J. M., and Cooper, H. M. (1979), “The Desirability of Control,” Motivation and Emotion, 3, 381-393.
18. Choi, J. J., Laibson, D., and Metrick, A. (2000), “Does the Internet Increase Trading? Evidence from Investor Behavior in 401(k) Plans,” Working Paper, University of Pennsylvania.
19. Christensen-Szalanski, J. J., and Bushyhead, J. B. (1981), “Physicians’ Use of Probabilistic Information in a Real Clinical Setting,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 7, 928-935.
20. Cohen, J.(1964), Behavior in Uncertainly, London: Unwin.
21. Cooper, A. C., Woo, C. Y., and Dunkelberg W. C. (1988), “Entrepreneurs’ Perceived Chances for Success,” Journal of Business Venturing, 3, 97-108.
22. Daniel, K., Hirshleifer, D., and Subrahmanyam, A. (1998), “Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions,” Journal of Finance, 53, 1839-1885.
23. Dasgupta, S. (1998), “Electronic Contracting in Online Stock Trading,” Electronic Markets, 8, 20-22.
24. Davis, F. D. (1989), “Perceived Usefulness, Perceived Ease of Use, and User Acceptance of Information Technology,” Management Information Systems Quarterly, 319-340.
25. Davis, F. D., Kottemann, J. E. (1994), “User Perceptions of Decision Support Effectiveness: Two Production Planning Experiments,” Decision Sciences, 25, 57-78.
26. De Bondt, W. F. M. (1998), “A Portrait of the Individual Investor,” European Economic Review, 42, 831-844.
27. De Bondt, W. F. M., and Thaler, R., Bernstein, P. L. (1985), “Does the Stock Market Overreact?,” Journal of Finance, 40, 793-808.
28. Deaux, K., and Farris, E. (1977), “Attributing Causes for One’s Own Performance: The Effects of Sex, Norms, and Outcome,” Journal of Research in Personality, 11, 59-72.
29. Dunn, D. S., and Wilson, T. D. (1990), “When the Stakes Are High: A Limit to the Illusion of Control Effect,” Social Cognition, 8, 305-323.
30. Feather, N. T. (1969), “Attribution of Responsibility and Valence of Success and Failure in Relation to Initial Confidence and Task Performance,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 13, 129-144.
31. Festinger, L. (1957), A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance, Standford University Press: Standford, CA.
32. Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., and Lichtenstein, S. (1977), “Knowing with Certainty: The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence,” Journal of Experimental Psychology, 3, 552-564.
33. Ford, J. K., Schmitt, N., Schechtman, S. L., Hults, B. M., and Doherty, M. L. (1989), “Process Tracing Methods: Contributions, Problems, and Neglected Research Questions,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 43, 75-117.
34. Gervais, S., and Odean, T. (2001), “Learning to Be Overconfidence,” Review of Financial Studies, 14, 1-27.
35. Glass, D. C., and Singer, J. E. (1972), Urban Stress: Experiments on Noise and Social Stressors. San Diego, CA: Academic Press.
36. Griffin, D., and Tversky, A. (1992), “The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of Confidence,” Cognitive Psychology, 24, 411-435.
37. Grossman, S. J., and Stiglitz, J. E. (1980), “On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets,” American Economic Review, 70, 393-408.
38. Harris, M., and Raviv, A. (1993), “Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race,” Review of Financial Studies, 6, 473-506.
39. Heider, F. (1958), The Psychology of Interpersonal Relations, New York: Wiley.
40. Henslin, J. M. (1967), “Craps and Magic,” American Journal of Sociology, 73, 316-330.
41. Hershey, D. A., Walsh, D. A., Read, S. J., and Chulef, A. S. (1990), “The Effects of Expertise on Financial Problem Solving: Evidence of Goal-Directed Problem Solving Scripts,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 46, 77-101.
42. Hoch, S. J. (1985), “Counterfactual Reasoning and Accuracy in Predicting Personal Events,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 11, 719-731.
43. Hoge, R. D. (1970), “Confidence in Decision as an Index of Perceived Accuracy of Information Processing,” Psyhonomic Science, 18, 351-353.
44. Hong, Se-Joon (2000), “Information-Processing Costs in Online Stock Trading,” Electronic Markets, 10, 192-196.
45. Johnson, E. J. (1985), “Expertise and Decision Under Uncertainty: Performance and Process,” In The Nature of Expertise. Edited by Chi, M., Glaser, R., and Farr, M., Columbus: National Center for Research in Vocational Education, 209-228.
46. Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. (1979), “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk,” Econometrica, 47, 263-291.
47. Keinan, G., and Zeidner, M. (1987), “Effect of Decisional Control on State Anxiety and Achievement,” Personality and Individual Differences, 8, 973-975.
48. Keller, K. L., and Staelin, R. (1987), “Effects of Quality and Quantity of Information on Decision Effectiveness,” Journal of Consumer Research, 14, 200-213.
49. Kelley, H. H. (1967), “Attribution Theory in Social Psychology,” In Nebraska Symposium of Motivation. Edited by Levine, D., Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press.
50. Kidd, J. B. (1970), “The Utilization of Subjective Probabilities in Production Planning,” Acta Psychologica, 34, 338-347.
51. Konana, P., Menon, M. N., and Abramowitz, D. (1999), “Electronic Brokerages for Online Investing,” Electronic Markets, 9, 32-36.
52. Koriat, A., Lichtenstein, S., and Fischhoff, B. (1980), “Reasons for Confidence,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6, 107-118.
53. Kottemann, J. E., Davis, F. D., and Remus, W. E. (1994), “Computer-Assisted Decision Making: Performance, Beliefs, and the Illusion of Control,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 57, 26-37.
54. Kunda, Z. (1987), “Motivated Inference: Self-Serving Generation and Evaluation of Causal Theories,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 53, 636-647.
55. Langer, E. J. (1975), “The Illusion of Control,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, 311-328.
56. Langer, E. J., and Roth, J. (1975), “Heads I Win, Tails It’s Chance: The Illusion of Control as a Function of the Sequence of Outcomes in a Purely Chance Task,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, 951-955.
57. Larkin, J. H., McDermott, J., Simon, D. P., and Simon, H. A. (1980), “Expert and Novice Performance in Solving Physics Problems,” Science, 208, 1335-1342.
58. Lefcourt, H. (1973), “The Function of the Illusion of Control and Freedom,” American Psychologist, 28, 417-425.
59. Lenney, E. (1977), “Woman’s Self-Confidence in Achievement Settings,” Psychological Bulletin, 84, 1-13.
60. Lewellen, W. G., Lease, R. C., and Schlarbaum, G. G. (1977), “Patterns of Investment Strategy and Behavior among Individual Investors,” Journal of Business, 50, 296-333.
61. Lichtenstein, S. and Fischhoff, B. (1977), “Do Those Who Know More Also Know More About How Much They Know? The Calibration of Probability Judgments,” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20, 159-183.
62. Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., Phillips, L. (1982), “Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art to 1980,” In Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Bias. Edited by Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., and Tversky, A., Cambridge, U.K., and New York: Cambridge University Press.
63. Lichtenstein, S., Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., Layman, M. and Combs, B. (1978), “Judged Frequency of Lethal Events,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 4, 551-578.
64. Litt, M. D. (1988), “Cognitive Mediators of Stressful Experience: Self-Efficacy and Perceived Control,” Cognitive Therapy and Research, 12, 241-260.
65. Lundeberg, M. A., Fox, P. W., and Punccohar, J. (1994), “Highly Confident but Wrong: Gender Differences and Similarities in Confidence Judgments,” Journal of Educational Psychology, 86, 114-121.
66. Meehan, A. M., and Overton, W. F. (1986), “Gender Differences in Expectancies for Success and Performance on Piagetian Spatial Tasks,” Merrill-Palmer Quarterly, 32, 427-441.
67. Miller, D. T., and Ross, M. (1975), “Self-Serving Bias in Attribution of Causality: Fact or Fiction?,” Psychological Bulletin, 82, 213-225.
68. Miller, S. M. (1979), “Controllability and Human Stress: Method, Evidence and Theory,” Behavioral Research and Theory, 17, 287-304.
69. Moore, D. A., Kurtzberg, T. R., Fox, C. R., and Bazerman M. H. (1999), “Positive Illusions and Forecasting Errors in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Process, 79, 95-114.
70. Neale, M. A., and Bazerman, M. H. (1990), Cognition and Rationality in Negotiation, New York: The Free Press.
71. Odean, T. (1998), “Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average,” Journal of Finance, 53, 1887-1934.
72. Oskamp, S. (1965), “Overconfidence in Case-Study Judgments,” Journal of Consulting Psychology, 29, 261-265.
73. Payne, J. W., Bettman, J. R., and Johnson, E. J. (1993), The Adaptive Decision Maker, Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
74. Pereira, R. E. (1999), “Factors Influencing Consumer Perceptions of Web-Based Decision Support Systems,” Logistics Information Management, 12, 157-181.
75. Peterson, D. K., and Pitz, G. F. (1988), “Confidence, Uncertainty, and the Use of Information,” Journal of Experimental Psychology, 14, 85-92.
76. Presson, P. K., and Benassi, V. A. (1996), “Illusion of Control: A Meta-Analytic Review,” Journal of Social Behavior and Personality, 11, 493-510.
77. Prince, M. (1993), “Woman, Men, and Money Styles,” Journal of Economic Psychology, 14, 175-182.
78. Rabin, M., and Schrag, J. (1999), “First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114, 37-82.
79. Rotter, J. B. (1975), “Some Problems and Misconceptions Related to the Construct of Internal vs. External Locus of Control,” Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 43, 56-67.
80. Rozeff, M. S., and William R. Kenney, JR. (1976), “Capital Market Seasonality: the Case of Stock Returns,” Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 379-402.
81. Russo, J. E., and Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1992), “Managing Overconfidence,” Sloan Management Review, 33, 7-17.
82. Seligman, M. E. P. (1975), Helplessness: On Depression, Development and Death, San Francisco: Freeman.
83. Shefrin, H. (2000), Beyond Greed And Fear, Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.
84. Shefrin, H., and Statman, M. (1985),“The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence,” Journal of Finance, 40, 777-790.
85. Shiller, R. J. (1984), “Stock Prices and Social Dynamics,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity II, 457-498.
86. Shiller, R. J. (1987), “Fashions, Fads and Bubbles in Financial Markets,” In Knights, Raiders and Targets: The Impact of the Hostile Takeover. Edited by Coffee, J., Oxford, England: Oxford University Press.
87. Shiller, R. J. (2000), Irrational Exuberance, Princeton University Press.
88. Slovic, P. (1973), “Behavioral Problems of Adhering to a Decision Policy,” Working Paper, Oregon Research Institute, Eugene, Oregon.
89. Staël von Holstein, Carl-Axel S. (1972), “Probabilistic Forecasting: An Experiment Related to the Stock Market,” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 8, 139-158.
90. Stewart, T. R., Heideman, K. F., Moninger, W. R., and Reagan-Cirincione, P. (1992), “Effects of Improved Information on the Components of Skill in Weather Forecasting,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 53, 107-134.
91. Streufert, S., and Streufert, S. C. (1969), “The Effects of Conceptual Structure, Failure, and Success on Attributions of Causality and Interpersonal Attitudes,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 11, 138-147.
92. Strickland, L. H., Lewicki, R. J., and Katz, A. M. (1966), “Temporal Orientation and Perceived Control as Determinants of Risk-Taking,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 2, 143-151.
93. Svenson, O. (1981), “Are We All Less Risky and More Skillful Than Our Fellow Drivers?,” Acta Psychologica, 47, 143-148.
94. Taylor, S. E., and Brown, J. D. (1988), “Illusion and Well-Being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health,” Psychological Bulletin, 103, 193-210.
95. Thompson, S. C. (1981), “Will It Hurt Less If I Can Control It? A Complex Answer to a Simple Question,” Psychological Bulletin, 90, 89-101.
96. Thompson, R. L., Higgins, C. A., and Howell, J. M. (1994), “Influence of Experience on Personal Computer Utilization: Testing a Conceptual Model,” Journal of Management Information Systems, 11, 167-187.
97. Tversky, A., and Kahneman, D. (1971), “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers,” Psychological Bulletin, 76, 105-110.
98. Tversky, A., and Kahneman, D. (1973), “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability,” Cognitive Psychology, 5, 207-232.
99. Tversky, A., and Kahneman, D. (1974), “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,” Science, 185, 1124-1131.
100. Varian, H. R. (1989), “Differences of Opinion in Financial Markets,” In Financial Risk: Theory, Evidence and Implications. Edited by Stone, C. C., (Proceedings of the Eleventh Annual Economic Policy conference of the Federal Reverse Bank of St. Louis, Boston.)
101. Wagenaar, W., and Keren, G. B. (1986), “Does the Expert Know? The Reliability of Predictions and Confidence Ratings of Experts,” In Intelligent Decision Support in Process Environments. Edited by Hollnagel, E., Mancini, G., and Woods, D. D., Berlin: Springer.
102. Weiner, B., Frieze, I., Kukla, A., Reed, L., Rest, S., and Rosenbaum, R. M. (1971), “Perceiving the Causes of Success and Failure,” In Attribution. Edited by Jones, E. E., Kanouse, D. E., Nisbett, R. E., Valins, S., and Weiner, B., Morristown, N. J.: General Learning Press.
103. Weinstein, N. D. (1980), “Unrealistic Optimism about Future Life Events,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 806-820.
104. White, R. W. (1959), “Motivation Reconsidered: The Concept of Competence,” Psychological Review, 66, 297-333.
105. Womack, K. L. (1996), “Do Brokerage Analyst’s Recommendations Have Investment Value?,” Journal of Finance, 51, 137-167.
106. Wortman, C. B. (1975), “Some Determinants of Perceived Control,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 31, 282-294.
107. Wortman, C. B., Costanzo, P. R., and Witt, T. R. (1973), “Effects of Anticipated Performance on the Attributions of Causality to Self and Others,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 27, 372-381.
108. Wortzel, R. (1979), “New Life Style Determinants of Women’s Food Shopping Behavior,” Jounal of Marketing, 43, 28-29.
109. Yates, J. F. (1990), Judgment and Decision Making, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice Hall.

指導教授

林子銘(Tzu-Ming Lin)

審核日期

2002-7-2

推文