| 摘要(英) |
Taiwan′s traditional culture of housing has a concept that owing a house is equivalent to having a family. The culture makes purchasing a house has been a necessity in Taiwanese lifetime. Therefore, the trend of house price has always been concerned. The house price in Taiwan has been rising rapidly since the estate tax was cut in 2009. Although the government is dedicated to control the price, it still can’t keep the price from rising. As a result, this paper concerns whether the value of house is equivalent to the price.
This study focuses on six counties in Taiwan, Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Hsinchu, Taichung and Kaohsiung. The study period is the first quarter of 1994 to the fourth quarter of 2013. This study uses Time-Varying Present Value to calculate a foundation value of real estate then estimate house price bubble in each county. The second part in this study analyze the spread of house price bubble by using Least Square. In order to discuss the influence of net immigration population on price bubble, this paper adds net immigration population in each county to regression.
The result shows that it exists price bubble in six counties in some manner. The highest price bubble is in Taipei, following by New Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, Kaohsiung and Hsinchu in order. In the spread of price bubble phenomena, the result shows that housing price bubble in Taipei can strongly affect the housing price in New Taipei, Taoyuan and Hsinchu. Besides, the spread path is centered in Taipei and New Taipei southward spread to the rest of the counties except Kaohsiung
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