博碩士論文 101429016 詳細資訊




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姓名 李奇鴻(Chi-Hong Li)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 經濟學系
論文名稱 亞洲經濟成長實證研究
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摘要(中) 本文使用10個亞洲大型經濟體的跨國追蹤資料調查影響人均國內生產總值成長的關鍵因素,研究期間為1972-2010年,研究結果發現在其他條件不變的假定下,金融危機對於經濟成長率只有短期的負面影響,與「資產負債表衰退理論」之預期不符。另外有關於所得水準持續升高導致都市化對經濟成長的效用由正轉負之Williamson的假說,本文實證其效果不顯著。此外信用數量理論預測國內信用對於名目國內生產毛額的比率持續偏高(低)時,金融泡沫(通貨緊縮)將會發生,不利於經濟成長,則和我們的研究結果一致。本研究另以新聞自由度作為民粹主義的代理變量,發現在亞洲大型國家民粹主義的發展對經濟成長造成危害之效果為真。
摘要(英) This paper uses panel data from 28 large economies in the world to investigate the determinants of the growth rate of real per capita GDP during 1969-2010. It is found that contrary to the prediction of the “balance sheet recession theory”, financial crisis has negative effects on growth rates only in the short run, other things being equal. The prediction of the “quantity theory of credit” that when the ratio between the credit level and nominal GDP is kept too high (low) for a sustained period of time, a situation of financial bubble creation (credit crunch) will develop, and would be detrimental to growth in either way is consistent with our findings.
關鍵字(中) ★ 成長
★ 失落的十年
★ 金融危機
★ 經濟衰退的殘差
★ 追蹤資料
★ 跨國
★ 新聞自由
★ 信用
關鍵字(英) ★ growth
★ lost decade
★ lost decade
★ credit, panel study
★ cross-country
★ balance sheet recession
★ quantity theory of credit
★ recession residuals
★ press of freedom
論文目次 第一章、引言 1
第二章、理論探討與文獻回顧 3
第一節、經濟成長理論 3
第一節、經濟成長理論 6
第三章、研究方法和資料 11
第一節、ordinary least squares 12
第二節、Two stage least squares methods 13
第三節、內生成長模型 15
第四節、變數資料 16
第四章、研究成果 20
第五章、結論 25
參考文獻 28
一、英文文獻 28
二、中文文獻 36
附錄 37
附表 38
參考文獻 一、英文文獻
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二、中文文獻
洪煜茹, 1996. 台灣地區出口產業與經濟成長之研究. 碩士論文, 台北:淡江大學國際貿易學系國際企業學研究所
陳心蘋, 曹書豪, 2013. 人口聚集型態與經濟成長.人口學刊 第47期:127-156.
黃啟倫, 2005. 政府高等教育支出與經濟成長. 碩士論文, 台北:國立政治大學財政學研究所
曹書豪, 2010. 聚集經濟對經濟成長之影響:全球實證分析. 碩士論文, 台北:國立政治大學經濟學研究所
指導教授 朱雲鵬(Yun-Peng Chu) 審核日期 2015-1-27
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