西北太平洋地區颱風活動隨全球暖化的改變

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陳昀靖(Yun-jing Chen) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

大氣物理研究所

論文名稱

西北太平洋地區颱風活動隨全球暖化的改變
(Change of tropical cyclone activity in Western North Pacific under the global warming)

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摘要(中)

本研究使用了高解析度大氣模式HiRAM以及三個CMIP5的模式CNRM-CM5、MIROC5以及GFDL-ESM2G對於西北太平洋地區颱風活動在全球暖化下會如何改變進行分析。在此針對颱風總個數、生命週期、颱風生成及路徑分布以及降雨強度的改變進行討論。

從模擬結果可發現，當溫室氣體濃度上升時，各個模式模擬出的西北太平洋地區的大尺度環境場皆會有以下的改變: (1)海溫上升、(2)近赤道太平洋地區東西向海溫梯度減弱、(3)沃克環流減弱、(4)西北太平洋副高西伸、(5)季風槽減弱、(6)穩定度增加以及(7)低對流層比濕增加等情況。

因此，分析其結果發現各個模式在西北太平洋颱風個數在全球暖化下會因為季風槽減弱以及穩定度增加而減少。而低層比濕以及海表面溫度的增加提供更多的水氣使得颱風的平均降雨強度增加。此外受到副高西伸的影響，造成颱風路徑在全球暖化下會有向西或者向南偏的趨勢。而各模式模擬出颱風的生命週期在全球暖化下皆無明顯的改變。

在颱風強度方面，HiRAM、CNRM-CM5以及GFDL-ESM2G都模擬出西北太平洋熱帶地區潛勢強度隨全球暖化上升，造成颱風平均最大風速上升且較強的颱風期比例或個數有上升的情形。但MIROC5則顯示出西北太平洋熱帶地區潛勢強度隨全球暖化減弱造成颱風的平均最大風速下降，且強颱個數減少。

HiRAM、CNRM-CM5以及GFDL-ESM2G都模擬出垂直風切在全球暖化之情況下在西北太平洋熱帶氣區有減弱的趨勢。但MIROC5則模擬出風切增強的結果。而在暖水層厚度方面，CNRM-CM5以及GFDL-ESM2G都模擬出在模式中的颱風主要生成區暖水層厚度都有明顯加深，有利於強颱生成。但MIROC5則在該模式之颱風主要生成區內暖水層厚度沒有明顯的增加。

雖然在颱風強度、垂直風切以及暖水層厚度的改變方面各模式所模擬出的結果不盡相同，但大多數模式認為颱風強度會增強且垂直風切以及暖水層厚度的改變是有利於颱風發展的，因此在未來較有可能出現上述的改變。

摘要(英)

Tropical cyclone (TC) activity in Northwest Pacific Ocean is analyzed in 3 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) CNRM-CM5, MIROC5 and GFDL-ESM2G and high-resolution atmospheric model(HiRAM) . We discuss the total number, lifetime, intensity, track variation of tropical cyclones under different climate scenarios in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

All of models show that there are several changes of large-scale environment occurred with global warming in the West North Pacific. (1) Sea surface temperatures increase. (2) sea surface temperature gradient of equatorial Pacific decrease (3)Walker circulation weakens. (4) West North Subtropical high extend westward. (5) monsoon through weakens. (6)Stability increase and (7) Specific humidity in low troposphere increase.

Therefore , all of models show that the number of TC decrease. This reduction is associated with increment of stability and weakness of monsoon through. The increment of specific humidity in low troposphere cause the rainfall brought by TCs become stronger .And the track of TCs tend to westward instead of northward because of the westwardly extension of West North Subtropical high.

Tropical cyclone strength , HiRAM, CNRM-CM5 and GFDL-ESM2G are simulate that potential intensity will increase in tropical Northwest Pacific under the global warming, so average maximum wind speed of TCs increase and the number or ratio of stronger TCs increase. But MIROC5 shows that average maximum wind speed decrease and reduce the number of stronger TCs because of the decrement of potential intensity.

關鍵字(中)

★ 颱風
★ 全球暖化

關鍵字(英)

★ Typhoon
★ global warming

論文目次

中文摘要 I

英文摘要..........................................................III

致謝 ...............................................................V

目錄 ..............................................................VI

表目錄 VIIII

圖目錄 VIIII

第一章緒論 1

1.1 前言與文獻回顧 1

1.2 研究動機與目的 3

1.3 論文結構 5

第二章資料來源與研究方法 6

2.1 資料來源 6

2.1.1 CMIP5 6

2.1.2 ERA-Interim 7

2.1.3 JTWC最佳路徑資料 7

2.2 氣旋追蹤方法與原理 7

2.3 熱帶氣旋定義方法 9

2.5 研究週期及範圍 10

第三章模式模擬能力驗證 11

3.1 模式模擬之氣候場 11

3.1.1 ERA-Interim之氣候場 12

3.1.2 模式之氣候場 12

3.2 模式模擬之熱帶氣旋 13

3.2.1 熱帶氣旋結構 13

3.2.2 熱帶氣旋個數、最大風速、生命週期 14

3.2.3 熱帶氣旋生成分布 15

3.2.4 熱帶氣旋路徑分布 16

第四章大尺度環境在全球暖化下的改變 18

4.1 海表面溫度 18

4.2 沃克環流 19

4.3 太平洋副高、季風槽 21

4.4 大氣穩定度 23

4.5 低層比濕 24

4.6 颱風潛勢強度 25

4.7 垂直風切 26

4.8 暖水層厚度 27

第五章颱風活動在全球暖化下的改變 29

5.1 生成分布 29

5.2 路徑分布 29

5.3 平均降雨強度 31

5.4 颱風年平均個數、生命週期及強度 31

第六章結論與未來展望 35

6.1 模式之共通性 35

6.2 模式之不確定性 35

6.3 結論 36

6.4未來展望 37

參考文獻 38

附表 43

附圖 45

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指導教授

林沛練、曾仁佑(Pay-liam Lin Ren-yow Tzeng)

審核日期

2015-8-31

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