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姓名 連昱榕(Yu-Rong Lian)  查詢紙本館藏   畢業系所 經濟學系
論文名稱 能源補貼下的最適貨幣政策
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摘要(中) 本文嘗試建立一個能捕捉台灣能源使用的動態隨機一般均衡模型以探討台灣最適的貨幣政策應該如何設計:央行應該釘住扣除物價波動較大成分的核心通貨膨脹率,或是總通貨膨脹率。為了較準確刻劃家計單位能源的使用,本文引入具有投資性質的耐久財消費進入模型中,同時也參考不同文獻的設定,將能源價格補貼的行為一同引入。分析的結果發現,於本文校準的台灣補貼水準下,釘住預期(前瞻式)核心通貨膨脹率的方式為最適的貨幣政策,呼應了台灣央行過去的貨幣政策。然而,於無補貼下,本文考慮的各種貨幣政策之福利水準皆無明顯的差異,這代表當政府讓國際油價完全轉嫁至國內使用者時,央行在選擇貨幣政策上將有更自由的空間。
摘要(英) We study the optimal monetary policy rule under a DSGE model that allows for energy and durable goods consumption.In addition to rigidity in the nominal prices of domestically produced goods,energy subsidy is considered as another source of price distortion.
As a result,both the core and headline inflation rates are rigid.We calibrate our model to fit the Taiwanese economy.We find that Taylor rules that target on the core inflation are consistently better than those target on the headline inflation.In addition,forward-looking rules consistently generate higher welfare gains than rules that target on contemporaneous inflation.Without energy subsidy,the welfare differences between various monetary policies are negligible,which leave more room for the central bank to design its policy.
關鍵字(中) ★ 動態隨機一般均衡模型
★ 能源補貼
★ 貨幣政策
★ 福利水準
關鍵字(英) ★ DSGE model
★ energy subsidy
★ monetary policy
★ welfare analysis
論文目次 1.緒論..................................................1
2.文獻回顧..............................................4
3.理論模型..............................................7
3.1.家計單位.........................................7
3.2.廠商............................................10
3.2.1.最終財廠商................................11
3.2.2.中間財廠商................................11
3.3.政府............................................13
3.4.資源限制式.......................................14
3.5.中央銀行........................................15
3.6.加總與其他條件...................................15
4.資料、校準與衝擊反應..................................16
5.福利水準分析..........................................18
5.1.考慮能源補貼下的最適貨幣政策分析...................19
5.2.無能源補貼下的最適貨幣政策分析.....................22
5.3.考慮不對稱能源補貼下的最適貨幣政策分析.............24
6.穩健度分析............................................26
7.總結.................................................27
A.靜止均衡狀態..........................................29
B.校準.................................................31
C.對數線性化...........................................33
D.參考文獻.............................................37
E.表附錄...............................................41
F.圖附錄...............................................47
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吳致寧,李慶男,張志揚,林依伶,陳佩玗與林雅琪,(2011).「再論台灣非線性利率法則」,經濟論文,39,307-338。

林依伶,張志揚與陳佩玗,(2011).「台灣利率法則之實證研究-考慮匯率變動之不對稱性效果」,中央銀行季刊,34,39-62。

黃俞寧,(2013).「動態隨機一般均衡架構在台灣貨幣政策制定上之應用」,中央銀行季刊,35:1,3-34。

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Dhawan,R.,and K.Jeske,(2008).Energy price shocks and the macroeconomy:The role of consumer durables.Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking,40(7),1357-1377.

Erceg,C.J.,Henderson,D.W.,and A.T.Levin,(2000).Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts. Journal of Monetary Economics,46,281-313.

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Uhlig, H.,(1999).A toolkit for analyzing non-linear dynamic stochastic models easily. In: Marimon,R.,Scott,A., (Ed.),Computational Methods for the Study of Dynamic Economies.Oxford,UK:Oxford University Press,30-61.

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World Bank,(2006).Coping With Higher Fuel Prices,Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme,323/06.

Yau, R.,and G.H. Chen,(2014).Assessing energy subsidy policies in a structural macroeconomic model.Working Paper,National Central University.
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指導教授 姚睿(Ruey-Yau) 審核日期 2015-7-27
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