單站地動預估式建立及場址特定地震危害度分析

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高嘉謙(Jia-cian Gao) 查詢紙本館藏

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應用地質研究所

論文名稱

單站地動預估式建立及場址特定地震危害度分析
(Single-station Ground Motion Prediction Equation and Site-specific Seismic Hazard Analysis)

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摘要(中)

台灣地震頻繁，重要工程如核電廠及大型水庫，會進行個案的地震評估，擬定設計地震參數，此技術稱為地震危害度分析(seismic hazard analyses)。分析過程須評估震源規模、震源距離及工址震度大小，其中震源釋放地震波隨距離傳遞至工址之震度預測關係式或稱地動預估式(ground motion prediction equation，GMPE)研究尤為重要。過去的危害度分析所使用的地動預估式是以全區域內多個測站記錄到多個不同震源的強地動紀錄所建立的，包含過多的地動值變異性，會造成危害度過估。
本研究在地震資料上選用單一場址來進行分析，建立更適合該場址的地動預估式，以合理地計算危害度。研究過程中先選用來自中央氣象局的自由場強地動觀測網計畫(TSMIP)豐富之強震資料，共30602筆紀錄，完成台灣地區地殼地震全區地動預估式，再分別進行9個不同單站的地動預估式分析。分析結果顯示單一測站標準差比全區標準差(0.626)下降9%至33%，並以單站地動預估式建立場址特定地震危害度分析，以再現期2475年為例，顯示以單站地動預估式分析危害度比全區結果下降11%至48%。若地動預估式再進一步引入震源分區，單站標準差相較全區下降16%至36%，危害度結果較使用全區地動預估式可望下降更多。

摘要(英)

Due to frequent earthquakes in Taiwan, Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a common approach to evaluate potential earthquake motions at sites of critical facilities such a nuclear power plant and dams. It includes the estimation of the earthquake magnitude and distance of source, and earthquake intensity at a site. Ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) reflects the fact that the amplitude of the ground-motion increases with earthquake magnitude and decreases with propagation distance. Modern GMPEs are based on datasets of ground-motion parameters recorded at multiple stations and different earthquakes in various source regions. It causes excessive variability and leads to increase seismic hazard estimates.
In the present study, only strong-motion data record at a site is selected to establish a GMPE. We processed strong-motion data from TSMIP in Taiwan which used these data to establish GMPEs. A total of 30602 records are selected and are used to accomplish the regression analysis of a regional GMPE in the first step. Then, 9 stations are selected to complele a single-station GMPE, respectively. The results reveal that the sigma of the regional GMPE is 0.626 in ln unit and the sigma of single-station GMPE is ranging 0.416 to 0.567. The single-station sigma is about 9% to 33% reduction from the regional one. When PSHA is performed by adopting the single-station sigma, the hazard is 11% to 48% smaller then that regional sigma is used. If source zones are further involved in GMPEs, the sigma of single-station GMPEs can reduced 16% to 36% relative to regional GMPE′s. It is expected to further reduce the result of seismic hazard analysis.

關鍵字(中)

★ 單站地動預估式
★ 強地動衰減式
★ 場址特定地震危害度分析
★ 場址特性地動預估式

關鍵字(英)

論文目次

目錄
摘要 II
Abstract III
致謝 IV
目錄 V
圖目錄 IX
表目錄 XIII
第一章緒論 1
1-1 研究動機與目的 1
1-2 文獻回顧 2
1-2-1 地震危害度分析發展 2
1-2-2 地動預估式演變 4
1-2-3 場址特性-Vs30 9
1-3 研究流程與內容 10
第二章資料蒐集與處理 15
2-1 地震規模參數 16
2-2 距離參數 17
2-3 震源機制參數 17
2-4 測站場址參數 17
2-5 地動參數建立 18
第三章地動預估式型式建立與迴歸分析方法 24
3-1 強地動衰減型式 24
3-1-1 考慮規模與距離項 25
3-1-2 規模項的精進 25
3-1-3 增加場址項 25
3-1-4 增加震源機制項 26
3-1-5 增加規模平方項 26
3-1-6 地動預估式雛型 26
3-2 地動預估式迴歸分析方法 27
3-2-1 統計軟體R 27
3-2-2 最大概似法 27
3-2-2 混合效應模型 28
第四章台灣地區地殼震源地動預估式 31
4-1 地殼震源地動預估式迴歸成果 31
4-2 殘差值分析 32
4-3 國內外地動預估式之比較 33
第五章單站地殼震源地動預估式 40
5-1 場址特定地殼震源地動預估式 40
5-1-1 測站-HWA028 40
5-1-2 測站-TTN041 41
5-1-3 測站-ILA053 41
5-1-4 測站-TCU059 42
5-1-5 測站-CHY041 42
5-1-6 測站-TAP022 42
5-1-7 測站-HWA037 43
5-1-8 測站-TCU095 43
5-1-9 測站-KAU077 44
5-2 場址特定的地震危害度分析 44
5-2-1 地震危害度分析之震源參數 45
5-2-2 地震危害度分析之邏輯樹架構 45
5-2-3 各場址地震危害度分析結果與比較 45
第六章單站地動預估式引入震源分區 64
6-1 震源分區 64
6-2 地動預估式引入震源分區 64
6-2-1 測站-HWA028 65
6-2-2 測站-TTN041 65
6-2-3 測站-ILA053 66
6-2-4 測站-TCU059 66
6-2-5 測站-CHY041 66
6-2-6 測站-TAP022 67
6-2-7 測站-HWA037 67
6-2-8 測站-TCU095 68
6-2-9 測站-KAU077 68
6-3 小結 68
第七章討論 91
7-1 自然的隨機誤差與知識的不確定性 91
7-2 國內外單一測站標準差 92
7-3 單站地動預估式的應用 93
第八章結論與建議 97
8-1 結論 97
8-2 建議 97
參考文獻 98
附錄 106
考慮隨機變異與知識不確定性的地震危害度分析 106

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指導教授

李錫堤(Chyi-Tyi Lee)

審核日期

2015-7-23

推文