| 摘要(英) |
Taiwan has the subtropical climate. Although annual rainfall of the island reaches 2,500 mm, available water resources of dry seasons are limited due to great spatial and temporal variabilities. Reliable water resources management systems are crucial to provide stable water supplies in Taiwan. Considering potential impacts of climate change may cause increased intensities and frequencies of extreme events, effect management strategies are particularly important. This study investigated impacts of climate changes on water resources in Tainan City. Historical meteorological data were collected. A weather generator was applied to generate daily temperature and rainfall for near future (2021~2040). The year 2030 was used to represent the near future. Weather data of every 5 years from 2015 to 2030 were estimated by linear interpolations. A hydrological model, GWLF, was adopted to simulate inflows of reservoirs in Tainan City. A system dynamic model, VENSIM, was used to build water resources system of the city to evaluate vulnerability and reliability of water resources in Tainan City under climate changes. Under near future scenarios, the carrying capacities of water resources systems are insufficient to support the great increase of public water demands. A variety of adaption measures, such as expanding capacities of water treatment plants and building desalination plants, were evaluated for resolving such shortages. Thresholds of vulnerability, shortage index, reliability, and relative cost of selected adaption measures were used to determine optimized combination of adaption measures by the multi-criteria ranking as suggested adaption pathways for every 5 years till 2030. Under the RCP4.5 scenario with increased pubic water demands, extra capacities of one million tons per 10-day and two millions tons per 10-day are required from water treatment plants to overcome water shortage in 2020 and 2025, respectively; while extra capacities of one million tons per 10-day from water treatment plants and two millions tons per 10-day from desalination plants are required in 2030. Under the RCP8.5 scenario with increased pubic water demands, extra capacities of one million tons per 10-day are required from water treatment plants to overcome water shortage in 2020; while extra capacities of one million tons per 10-day from water treatment plants and one millions tons per 10-day from desalination plants are required to overcome water shortage in 2025 and extra capacities of two million tons per 10-day from water treatment plants and two millions tons per 10-day from desalination plants are required to overcome water shortage in 2030. Comparing water shortages between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, one million tons per 10-day are required due to sever climate change impact. |
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