中國分析師上榜新財富因素及明星分析師間能力差異之研究

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姓名

張雷(Lei Zhang) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

企業管理學系

論文名稱

中國分析師上榜新財富因素及明星分析師間能力差異之研究

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摘要(中)

本研究以2008-2015年中國分析師盈餘預測，新財富分析師上榜資料為樣本，研究影響分析師成為明星分析師的主要因素以及明星分析師之間存在的能力差異。以分析師過去多期盈餘預測取代過去單期預測成為分析師的能力變數，並用分析師媒體曝光度作為分析師聲譽變數，實證結果發現，分析師長期預測能力（盈餘預測準確度）與成為明星分析師為正向關係；明星分析師長期預測能力與其第一次上榜及再次上榜機率為正向關係，明星分析師長期預測能力與排名為正向關係。本研究還從首次上榜和再次上榜的分析師分群過程中，證明只研究分析師過去一期的盈餘預測是不能夠完全說明分析師預測能力的，而應該將分析師長期的表現納入考量範圍。分析師欲上榜新財富，要保持長期高準確度的預測水準，且成為明星分析師後，也要注意提高自己的曝光度，使投資者更多關注自己的研究，方可成為更頂尖的明星分析師。研究結論將有助於廣大投資者正確認識中國明星分析師預測能力，機構投資者也能更理性地選拔優秀分析師。

摘要(英)

This research took the earnings forecast data of Chinese analysts and the data of analysts listed on New Fortune from 2008-2015 as research samples and examined the factors that affect analysts becoming a star one and the ability differences among star analysts. This research took the past long-term earnings forecast of analysts replacing their short-term forecast as the competency variable of analysts. Empirical results have found that the long-term forecast ability of analysts is a key factor in influencing analysts to be a star one; among star analysts, there is no significant difference between the high-level star analysts and the low-level star analysts, who were divided as per the number of times of on-the-list and the position on the list, while the high-level star analysts have a much better reputation than the low-level ones. In addition, this research also grouped the analysts of first being on the list and those being on the list once again, and verified that it is not enough to fully prove the forecast ability of analysts just by their earnings forecasts of a period in the past, but should take their long-term performance into consideration. Analysts who want to be on the list of the New Fortune should maintain a long-term high-accuracy forecast level, and furthermore pay attention to uplifting their exposure frequency after being a star analyst so as to attract more investors to care about their research results, hence becoming a higher-level star one. The research conclusions of this paper are conducive for common investors to knowing the forecast ability of Chinese star analysts and for institutional investors to selecting outstanding analysts more rationally.

關鍵字(中)

★ 分析師能力
★ 新財富分析師排名
★ 分析師聲譽

關鍵字(英)

★ Analyst ability
★ New Fortune rank
★ Analyst reputation

論文目次

中文摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 vi
一、緒論 1
1-1 研究背景與動機 1
1-2 研究目的 4
1-3 研究流程 5
二、文獻探討 6
2-1 新財富排名 6
2-2 分析師能力與分析師排名 7
2-3 分析師聲譽與分析師排名 10
2-4 假設發展 11
三、研究設計 13
3-1 資料來源和樣本選取 13
3-2 模型建立 13
3-2-1 H1之實證模型 13
3-2-2 H2之實證模型 15
3-2-3 H3之實證模型 15
3-3變數之衡量 17
3-3-1 分析師能力變數之衡量 17
3-3-2 分析師聲譽變數之衡量 17
3-3-3 其他控制變數之測量 18
四、實證結果分析 19
4-1 敘述性統計 19
4-2回歸分析 20
4-2-1 檢定假說1：分析師長期預測能力與其成為明星分析師為正向關係。 20
4-2-2 檢定假說2：明星分析師長期預測能力與其第一次上榜及再次上榜概率為正向關係。 23
4-2-3 檢定假說3：明星分析師長期預測能力與排名為正向關係。 24
五、研究結論與建議 25
參考文獻 27

參考文獻

中文參考文獻
白曉紅，2013，中國明星分析師預測能力研究，對外經濟貿易大學碩士論文。
李麗青，2013，最佳分析師的投資評級更有投資價值嗎:來自中國A股市場的經驗證據，廣東財經大學學報，第六期（6月）：34-41。
吳偎立與張崢，2016，資訊品質、市場評級與激勵有效性:基於《新財富》最佳分析師評選的證據，經濟學季刊，第十八卷第二期（2月）：723-744。
胡娜與邢曉薇，2014，聲譽如何影響證券分析師預測行為，上海管理科學，第三十六卷第六期（12月）：86-93。
馮旭南，2012，明星分析師是怎樣煉成的:來自《新財富》最佳分析師的證據，上海交通大學碩士論文。
楊飛，2016，如何成為明星分析師:分析師上榜新財富決定因素研究，中央財經大學學報，第十一期（10月）：47-56。

英文參考文獻
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指導教授

黃承祖(Cheng-Tsu Huang)

審核日期

2017-7-26

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