泰國能源及永續發展分析:投入產出技術之應用

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陸得雅(Tharinya Supasa) 查詢紙本館藏

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泰國能源及永續發展分析:投入產出技術之應用
(Essays on the Application of Input-Output Techniques to Energy and Sustainable Development Analysis in Thailand)

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摘要(中)

泰國目前正面臨化石能源快速枯竭、高度依賴進口石油及如何降低溫室氣體排放之重大挑戰。有鑑於此，泰國自1995年起積極施行節能減碳政策，要求工業部門及建築物立即降低其能源密集度（EI）。本研究旨在探討泰國現行能源政策的有效性，利用混合單位投入產出方法，本研究分析1995年至2010年間能源與二氧化碳排放量增長的關鍵決定因素為何。研究的重要發現包括能源密集度之改善僅發生於少數部門，如交通運輸、非金屬、紙製品及紡織品，其他行業則並無有明顯的能源密集度降低現象。另外，能源和二氧化碳排放分析顯示，研究期間泰國所增加的能源消費和二氧化碳排放有近50％是由生產出口產品所造成，國內消費則未明顯增加能源消耗與碳排放量。除此之外，結構分解分析則發現，最終需求效果是節能的最重要原因，而能源效率提升並不如預期能有效降低能源消耗。此外，家計部門能源消費之結構分解結果顯示，泰國各地的家計均適度使用節能產品，收入增加則會增加較貧困地區的能源需求。能源及排放量的分析結果顯示，其他製造業、建築業及食品飲料業為2000年和2010年能源使用及碳排放的五大貢獻行業之一。然而，根據1995年至2015年發布的政府報告，泰國目前的節能減排政策往往忽視這些部門，因為它們被認為是能源密集度最低的部門。此外，基於消費觀點，消費行為和這些能源密集型業中間投入的選擇，對工業能源需求變化有重要影響。工業仍然是經濟中能源需求和二氧化碳排放的潛在貢獻者，但卻沒有得到足夠的重視。基於此，應全面研擬基於消費角度的能源和碳排放政策，以充分發揮節能減排措施的潛力，使未來經濟成長能夠在環境永續上持續發展。

摘要(英)

Rapid depletion of non-renewable energy sources, high dependence on imported oil and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation are critical contemporary challenges for Thailand. Accordingly, energy conservation policies have been implemented since 1995, which required industries and buildings to reduce their energy intensity (EI) and consumption immediately. This study investigates the effectiveness of the prevailing energy policy in Thailand and reveals the key determinants of energy and CO2 emissions growth between 1995 and 2010 using a hybrid input–output approach. The key findings include the observation that EI improvement was, surprisingly, only apparent in a few sectors, namely transportation, non-metallics, paper and textiles. Meanwhile, other sectors exhibit no discernible evidence of EI reductions. The embodied energy and CO2 emissions analysis revealed that almost 50% of the growth seen in Thailand’s energy consumption and CO2 emissions over the study period is accounted for by the production of manufactured goods for export rather than for domestic consumption. In addition, structural decomposition analysis suggests that the final demand effect was the strongest factor for determining the efficacy of energy conservation, whereas the energy efficiency effect was not as impactful as expected for decreasing energy consumption. Further, the decomposition analysis for energy consumption in the residential sector revealed that households in all regions of Thailand moderately favour the use of energy-efficient products. Increasing incomes accentuate energy demand in poorer regions. An analysis based on energy and emission consumption revealed that the other manufacturing, construction and food and beverage sectors were among the five largest contributors to energy use and emissions in 2000 as well as 2010. Importantly, present-day energy conservation and climate change mitigation policies in Thailand have tended to neglect these sectors because they were deemed the least energy-intensive sectors according to governmental reports published from 1995 to 2015. Unfortunately, the consumption behaviours and choices vis-a-vis intermediate inputs of these energy-intensive sectors, based on a consumption perspective, exhibit interindustry linkage effects with respect to the changes in the energy demand among heavy industries. Consequently, this impacted national energy consumption and emissions. They are still the hidden contributors of energy demand and CO2 in the economy and also receive insufficient attention. Therefore, additional energy and emission policies based on a consumption perspective should be comprehensively pursued to harness the full potential of energy savings and emission-reductions initiatives in order for future economic growth to be environmentally sustainable.

關鍵字(中)

★ 泰國
★ 能源
★ 發展分析
★ 投入產出

關鍵字(英)

★ Energy policy
★ Sustainable
★ Emission
★ Input-Output

論文目次

TABLE OF CONTENTS

中文摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS v
LIST OF TABLES viii
LIST OF FIGURES ix

CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 World current environmental and energy problem 1
1.2 Thailand’s emission situation 5
1.3 Thailand’s energy and economic situations and challenges 8
1.4 Thailand’s energy and emission mitigation policies and challenges 16

CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW 20
2.1 Energy input–output and embodied energy analysis 20
2.2 Input–output structural decomposition analysis (IO–SDA) 25

CHAPTER III HAS ENERGY CONSERVATION BEEN AN EFFECTIVE POLICY FOR THAILAND? AN INPUT–OUTPUT STRUCTURAL DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS FROM 1995 TO 2010 29
3.1 Introduction 29
3.2 Methodology 32
3.2.1 Energy input–output analysis 32
3.2.2 Structural decomposition analysis 34
3.3 Data 36
3.4 Results and discussion 38
3.4.1 Energy intensity and embodied energy 38
3.4.2 Structural decomposition analysis results 46
3.4.3 Discussion 49
3.5 Summary and policy implications 52

CHAPTER IV SUSTAINABLE ENERGY AND CO2 REDUCTION POLICY IN THAILAND: AN INPUT–OUTPUT APPROACH FROM PRODUCTION- AND
CONSUMPTION-BASED PERSPECTIVES 54
4.1 Introduction 54
4.2 Methodology 58
4.2.1 Consumption-based energy and emissions 58
4.2.2 Supply driven model 61
4.3 Data and assumptions 62
4.4 Results and discussion 65
4.4.1. Production energy uses and embodied energy uses by sector 65
4.4.2. Production combustion emissions and embodied CO2 inventory by Sector 72
4.4.3. Economy-wide energy and CO2 balances and structural change 75
4.4.4 Economy-wide effects of natural gas and crude oil supply shortages 79
4. 5 Summary and policy implication 81

CHAPTER V HOUSEHOLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOURS
FOR DIFFERENT DEMOGRAPHIC REGIONS IN THAILAND
FROM 2000 TO 2010 85
5.1 Introduction 85
5.1.1 Factors influencing changes in residential energy consumption 88
5.1.1.1 Economic factors 88
5.1.1.2 Socioeconomic-demographic factors 89
5.1.1.3 Geographic factors 90
5.2 Methodology 91
5.2.1 Energy input–output analysis 91
5.2.2 SDA of change in energy consumption 92
5.3 Data and assumption 96
5.4 Result and discussions 99
5.4.1 Total household energy consumption and decomposition 99
5.4.2 Drivers of changes in energy consumption 102
5.5 Summary and policy implications 108

CHAPTER VI CONCLUSIONS 113
APPENDIXES 116
REFERENCES 121

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指導教授

蕭述三林師模(Shu-San Hsiau Shih-Mo Lin)

審核日期

2017-11-23

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