廣域山崩即時預報系統之研究

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鄧源昌(Yuan-Chang Deng) 查詢紙本館藏

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土木工程學系

論文名稱

廣域山崩即時預報系統之研究
(Development of a real-time forecasting system for regional landslide hazard assessment under extreme rainfall events)

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摘要(中)

本研究建立極端雨量下廣域山崩即時預報系統，運用美國地質調查所開發之TRIGRS定值法山崩潛勢分析程式，整合相關輸入參數以分析降雨入滲時邊坡土層即時孔隙水壓激發狀態及對應之安全係數，並透過即時動態展示圖形介面，明瞭暴雨事件過境期間所處關心區域之即時山崩潛勢及警戒指標動態情形，協助防救災決策之用。整體山崩預報核心為TRIGRS山崩潛勢分析結果，其版本與邊界模式之使用正確性將影響山崩預報可信度，故須釐清TRIGRS版本差異、參數設定，與模式適用情形及準確率。在水文地質輸入參數部分，基於土層地質隨機分布性及地質鑽探不足等因素，致使難以透過地質鑽探或現地試驗來獲取具有代表性之水文地質參數。因而整合遺傳演算法之最佳化技術耦合TRIGRS模式進行分析參數反算，並進行逆分析參數研究，試圖尋找較合適參數組合，供下一場颱風事件來臨時正算預測使用。
經重新推導與勘誤TRIGRS解析解，釐清理論對應不同版本程式差異，系統採取TRIGRS 2008飽和有限邊界模式作為山崩潛勢預報核心。最佳化參數反算分析之參數研究中，在桃芝颱風率定與下一場敏督利颱風事件驗證下，最佳化反算分區設定為地質分區，引入擴散係數改良與反算後凝聚力修正之最佳化模組可產製具防災實務能力之水文地質參數圖層。本研究成功建置廣域即時山崩預報系統，整合上述研究結果並可運行即時雨量與莫拉克颱風事件下小林村研究區域之自動山崩潛勢動態分析展示，可初步供防災機構參考使用。

摘要(英)

This study establishes a real-time forecasting system for regional landslide hazard assessment under extremely rainfall events. The system uses TRIGRS to evaluate the factor of safety of regional slopes in rainfall processes and to show variations of real-time susceptibility through ArcGIS platform. It can help researchers to realize susceptibility and alert indexes of the assigned slope and to make decisions of disaster prevention and mitigation.
TRIGRS model is the core of the landslide prediction system. Different versions and boundary settings of TRIGRS influence the credibility of forecast. It’s necessary to clarify the difference of versions, parameter settings, applicable conditions, and precision.
The hydrologic and mechanical parameters of landslide model are difficult to evaluate from the existing experiment due to random distribution of soil composition and data deficiencies. This research developes the reverse optimization analysis model to acquire reasonable parameters for landslide forecast under next typhoon. The optimization model combines Real-coded Genetic Algorithm with TRIGRS.
After rederiving the analytical solution of TRIGRS and clarifying the relation between theory and program, the system uses TRIGRS 2008 with initial wet condition and finite boundary setting as the core of landslide forecast. The results of the reverse optimization analysis show that the practical parameters layers provided by the module with geology divisions, the modification of diffusivity coefficient, and final cohesion increase. The real-time forecasting system for regional landslide hazard assessment under extremely rainfall events has successfully established. It can operate completely automated landslide susceptibility analysis and visual display for Xiaolin village region under Morakot typhoon. It’s useful for disaster prevention unit.

關鍵字(中)

★ 山崩
★ 最佳化
★ TRIGRS
★ 即時預報系統
★ 參數逆分析
★ 小林村

關鍵字(英)

★ Landslide
★ Optimization
★ TRIGRS
★ Real-time forecasting system
★ Reverse analysis
★ Xiaolin village

論文目次

摘要 i
Abstract ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 v
圖目錄 x
表目錄 xvi
第一章緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與目的 1
1.2 研究內容與流程 4
1.3 論文架構 6
第二章文獻回顧 7
2.1 廣域降雨誘發山崩潛勢分析 7
2.1.1 統計法 7
2.1.2 穩態山崩潛勢分析 10
2.1.3 暫態山崩潛勢分析 12
2.2 參數逆分析 19
2.3 山崩即時預報系統 26
第三章 TRIGRS分析模型研究 34
3.1 TRIGRS模型理論推導 35
3.1.1 一維未飽和入滲方程式 35
3.1.2 三維理查式方程式 38
3.1.3 TRIGRS三維理查式方程式 41
3.1.4 TRIGRS 解析解 43
3.1.5 TRIGRS無限邊坡理論 51
3.2 TRIGRS程式運算機制 54
3.2.1 TRIGRS 運算主流程 55
3.2.2 TRIGRS 總壓力水頭計算流程 56
3.3 TRIGRS程式驗證 60
3.3.1 TRIGRS 2008無限邊界驗證 60
3.3.2 TRIGRS 2008有限邊界驗證 62
3.3.3 TRIGRS 2002 與2008差異 64
3.3.4 TRIGRS 2008無限與有限邊界差異 74
3.4 TRIGRS總壓力水頭解析解研究 77
3.4.1 總壓力水頭穩態項 77
3.4.2 總壓力水頭暫態項解析 79
3.4.3 暫態壓力水頭物理現象解析 90
3.4.4 總壓力水頭綜合討論 93
3.5 案例參數研究 95
3.5.1 雨型固定下參數研究 95
3.5.2 不同雨型下參數研究 115
3.6 TRIGRS程式應用注意事項 120
3.6.1 TRIGRS手冊限制 120
3.6.2 本研究建議事項 121
第四章山崩潛勢分析資料庫 123
4.1 研究區域基本資訊 123
4.2 研究區域地質 126
4.3 水文參數 128
4.4 強度參數 129
4.5 土壤厚度與初始地下水位 130
4.6 水系與道路圖層 132
4.7 MySQL雨量資料庫與圖層 133
4.7.1 率定颱風–桃芝颱風 137
4.7.2 驗證颱風–敏督利颱風 138
4.7.3 驗證颱風–莫拉克颱風 140
4.8 山崩目錄 142
第五章分析參數最佳化反算 144
5.1 遺傳演算法簡介 144
5.2 分析參數最佳化數學模型 145
5.2.1 分析變數設定 145
5.2.2 TRIGRS分析成果評估 148
5.2.3 適應函數設定 150
5.2.4 最佳解評估標準 152
5.3 TRIGRS核心運算速度改良 153
5.3.1 程式結構調整 153
5.3.2 多核心技術 155
5.3.3 分析結果驗證與效率比對 156
5.4 最佳化參數逆分析流程 158
5.4.1 參數設定 159
5.4.2 隨機產生初始族群 161
5.4.3 遺傳演算法之世代演化 162
5.4.4 下一世代演算個體確立 165
5.4.5 收斂準則暨最佳化內部參數 166
5.5 最佳化參數逆分析改良因子 167
5.5.1 水文擴散係數修正 167
5.5.2 凝聚力提升策略 168
5.5.3 山崩臨界累積雨量設定 169
5.6 改良模組案例率定測試 171
5.6.1 水文擴散係數修正測試 171
5.6.2 降雨前山崩修正測試 173
5.6.3 山崩臨界累積雨量前崩塌修正 185
5.7 案例率定結果驗證 190
5.8 案例最佳參數組合探討 195
5.8.1 地質與桃芝山崩反算區 195
5.8.2 地質反算分區 206
5.9 小結 214
第六章廣域即時山崩預報系統建置 217
6.1 整體系統開發環境 219
6.2 山崩潛勢分析程式改良 219
6.3 自動定時式分析架構 224
6.3.1 區域雨量圖層產製系統 224
6.3.2 TRISHAL即時分析程式 238
6.3.3 山崩潛勢分析圖層展示系統 244
6.4 山崩預報系統運行操作 249
6.4.1 系統運作需求 249
6.4.2 非自動定時式分析 252
6.4.3 自動定時式分析 260
第七章結論與建議 274
7.1 結論 274
7.2 建議 275
參考文獻 276
附錄A 高屏溪流域之雨量測站列表 A-1
附錄B 最佳化逆分析參數研究 B-1

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指導教授

黃俊鴻(Jin-Hung Hwang)

審核日期

2018-1-29

推文