摘要(英) |
This thesis studies seismic data from 1990 to 2003. We use the MATLAB program to search for seismic distribution of events with magnitude (M)≧5.7 in 4 years and try to find out the intersection of arcs of earthquakes consisting 10 or more seismic points with approximately uniform distances. If the intersection cannot be found, then we scale down the magnitude (M) until the intersection of arcs of earthquakes has been found. Usually, the intersection can be found for events with a minimum M arround 5.0. This intersection called the “the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes”, if this intersection has overlapping areas, it is called “the strongest double-convex intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes ".
In the four years after “the strongest intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes” and “the strongest double-convex intersection of circular arcs of earthquakes " have been occurred, the probability of an earthquake with M≧5.7 occurring around the intersection point within a distance of 70 km is approximately 78.3%, and the probability of an earthquake with M≧6 is approximately 67.9%. This indicates that this study is valuable in predicting strong earthquakes.
In addition, this study calculates the sum of the released energy corresponding to the 10 or 9 seismic event points uniformly distributed in the two arcs of the intersection and the standard deviation of the corresponding fault lengths of these uniformly distributed events. The connections between these parameters and the occurrence of the predicted strong earthquakes are studied. |
參考文獻 |
〔1〕 H.C. Lei, “Circles, Circular Arcs and Lines of Earthquakes Around Taiwan”,
The 40th National Conference on Theoretical and Applied Mechanics,
Hsinchu, Taiwan, ROC, November 25-26, 2016.
〔2〕 H.C. Lei, “Circles, Circular Arcs and Lines of Earthquakes Around Taiwan
(II): Magnitude and Time”, 2017 the 15th Conference on Land Studies,
Tainan, Taiwan, ROC, May 12, 2017.
〔3〕 H.C. Lei (2017), “Some Ideas For Constructing Significant Intersections Of Circular Arcs Of Earthquakes”, Taiwan-Japan Joint Symposium on the Advancement of Urban Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Technology, Taoyuan, Taiwan, ROC.
〔4〕 C. H. Scholz , “The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting“,2 nd ed,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2002.
〔5〕 李錫堤(1999年1月),地震地變與防災,台灣區學校校舍耐震性能改善研討會分區講習共同資料, P.81~117, 國立中央大學應用地質研究所
〔6〕 時毓謙,「台灣地震弧交叉與大地震關聯之研究(1990年至2003年)」,國立中央大學,碩士論文,民國 106年 6 月。
〔7〕 中央氣象局,http://www.cwb.gov.tw/ |