產業差異對於分析師目標價與推薦門檻影響之探討

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姓名

陳啟洋(Chi-Yang Chen) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

企業管理學系

論文名稱

產業差異對於分析師目標價與推薦門檻影響之探討
(The Influence of Industrial Differences on the analysts’ Target Price and Recommendations)

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摘要(中)

分析師發佈的報告具資訊意涵，本研究欲探討分析師報告中，目標價相對於預測發佈時市價的折溢價比率是否和推薦有著正向的關係，並進一步研究分析師是否會因為個股所屬產業不同，存在不同的推薦門檻，以及分析師報告對於市場是否具有影響力。本研究實證樣本為 2008至2017年的台灣上市櫃企業，發現分析師所發佈的目標價之折溢價比率和推薦為顯著正向關係，易言之，當分析師提供的目標價高於目前市價越多，其於同一時間對該企業出具的推薦報告亦越正向。分析師推薦水準值存在產業差異，平均而言，傳統產業的水準值高於電子產業，電子產業的水準值又高於金融產業，換句話說，金融比電子業獲得較多的推薦，電子又比傳統產業獲得較多的推薦。分析師會因為個股所屬產業不同，存在不同的推薦門檻，門檻高低依序為傳產、電子、金融，給定相同的推薦水準值，傳產須有較高的目標價相對市價之折溢價比率。由分析師出具目標價與推薦報告後的三天累積異常報酬，顯示市場存在過度反應。

摘要(英)

There is informative content in analyst’ report. The purpose of this research discuss whether there is a positive relationship between the ratio of target price to market price and the recommendations, and also discuss if there are different thresholds of recommendations when the industry is different, and analysts’ reports are influential. The research sample is the listed companies in Taiwan from 2008 to 2017. The empirical result shows that there is a significantly positive relationship between the discounted premium rate and recommendation. In other words, the higher target price than market price, the more positive reports are issued. There is different recommendation level in different industry. The level of traditional industry is higher than electronic industry. The level of electronic industry is higher than financial industry. In other words, financial industry receives more positive recommendations than electronics industry, and electronics industry receives more positive recommendations than traditional industry. The results, rank from the highest to the lowest are as follows: production, electronics and finance. There is an overreaction in the market when there is cumulative abnormal return after target price and recommendation reports are issued in three days by analysts.

關鍵字(中)

★ 分析師
★ 產業差異
★ 推薦
★ 目標價

關鍵字(英)

★ Analyst
★ Difference of industry
★ Recommendation
★ Target price

論文目次

摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
目錄 ii
表目錄 iv
第一章緒論 1
1-1研究背景與動機 1
1-2研究目的 3
1-3論文架構 3
第二章文獻回顧 5
2-1分析師的資訊中介角色及其報告的資訊內涵 5
2-2 分析師之盈餘預測、推薦及目標價 6
2-3產業特性對於分析師的影響 9
第三章研究方法 10
3-1樣本來源 10
3-2 實證模型 10
3-2-1假說一實證模型 10
3-2-2假說二實證模型 12
3-2-3假說三實證模型 13
3-2-4假說四實證模型 13
第四章實證結果 16
4-1 假說一的實證分析 16
4-2 假說二的實證分析 20
4-3 假說三的實證分析 23
4-4 假說四的實證分析 26
第五章結論 28
參考文獻 30

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指導教授

黃承祖

審核日期

2018-7-2

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