台灣高房價所得比之研究

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陳炯豪(Chiung-Hao Chen) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

經濟學系

論文名稱

台灣高房價所得比之研究
(A Study of the High House Price to Income Ratio in Taiwan)

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摘要(中)

本文藉由動態隨機一般均衡模型的架構，並將房屋抵押貸款的性質納入模型，以探討房屋買賣與租賃市場在面對供給面與需求面的衝擊時有何反應，且更進一步的探討當抑制房貸成數時，會對這些衝擊所造成的反應有何效果。模擬結果發現，當房屋生產技術進步時，能有效的降低高房價所得比，而當一般生產技術進步與房屋需求偏好上升時，房價所得比上升，購置房屋變得更加的困難。本文更進一步的發現，抑制房貸成數在面對生產面的衝擊，比如消費財或房屋的生產部門技術進步時，對房屋價格與房價所得比均有抑制的效果，但會造成房屋租金的上漲；而在需求面的衝擊時，抑制房貸成數對房屋買賣價格、房屋租金與房價所得比並沒有顯著的影響。

摘要(英)

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with collateral constraints to study Taiwan′s housing price and rent dynamics. The main simulation results are summarized below. First, a positive supply shock in the housing sector will lead to a long-lasting reduction in the housing price-income ratio. Second, a positive TFP shock in the consumption goods sector or a positive housing demand shock induces a higher price-income ratio. Third, at the impact of a positive consumption goods or housing TFP shock, a lower loan-to-value (LTV) ratio can effectively restrain the house price and the price-income ratio but will lead to a higher rent. Moreover, in response to a rising housing demand, a lower LTV ratio has little influences on the house price, the price-income ratio, or rents.

關鍵字(中)

★ 房屋抵押
★ 房價租金比
★ 房價所得比
★ 房貸成數
★ 動態隨機一般均衡模型

關鍵字(英)

★ collateral
★ price-rent ratio
★ price-income ratio
★ LTV
★ DSGE model

論文目次

中文摘要................................... i
英文摘要................................... iii
謝誌....................................... v
目錄....................................... vii
圖目錄..................................... ix
表目錄..................................... xi
一、緒論................................... 1
二、模型架構............................... 5
2.1 租屋人 . . . . . . . . . 5
2.2 房東 . . . . . . . . . 7
2.3 廠商 . . . . . . . . . 9
2.4 外生衝擊 . . . . . . . 10
2.5 市場結清條件 . . . . . 11
三、參數校準................................. 13
四、模擬分析................................. 15
五、敏感性分析............................... 19
六、結論..................................... 23
文獻........................................ 25
附錄一...................................... 27
附錄二. 靜止均衡條件......................... 29
附錄三. 對數線性化........................... 31

參考文獻

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指導教授

姚睿(Ruey Yao)

審核日期

2018-7-27

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