| 摘要(英) |
After many years of universities expansion in accordance to government policy, Taiwan has become a college-friendly society. Compare to decades before, where college degree is rare and precious, almost all recent graduates hold either bachelor or master degrees now. On one hand, longer education life time means graduates enter the job market later. On the other hand, due to the change in society structure and macro-economic environment, the unemployment rate is also a serious topic for the country.
This thesis focuses on the first employment of new graduates, and the retention and stability of the first job. The dataset of the thesis comes from “Employment Analysis of 15-29 Years Old Young Labors” for year 2016 from the Ministry of Labor of Taiwan. The analyze methodologies include Life Table, Kaplan-Meier, and Cox Proportional Hazard Model of Survival Analysis.
As results, male labors stay longer on their first jobs. Labors with master or PhD degrees and labors paid by monthly salary tend to have longer retention. For those young labors who meet more difficulties before first jobs, who are well prepared before interview, who spend more time searching, and who are full-time searching right after graduation all tend to have shorter retention. |
| 參考文獻 |
中文參考文獻：
1. 王麗容(1999)，婦女二度就業之檢視與政策建議，社會政策與社會工作學刊，3(2)，181-226。
2. 王蘭(1999)，醫院員工領導型態、工作滿意度、組織承諾及離職傾向之研究，高雄醫學大學公共衛生學研究所，碩士論文。
3. 李淑媛、辛炳隆及蕭晴惠(2018)，協助改善青年就業困境之研究修正後期末報告，勞動部委託研究計劃，致理科技大學。
4. 林建甫(2008)，存活分析，雙葉書廊有限公司。
5. 林祖嘉(1986)，台灣地區大專畢業生工資預期與失業期關係之研究，台灣銀行季刊，43(1)，347-371。
6. 林祖嘉、林建志(2002)，大專畢業生第一份工作的工作轉換與在職搜尋：民國八十五年調查結果分析，國立政治大學學報，84，267-298
7. 張家展(1994)，台灣專上畢業生失業期間的研究─轉機函數的應用，國立清華大學經濟學研究所，碩士論文。
8. 陳又綾(2008)，影響年輕族群薪資與離職傾向之因素探討，國立中央大學人力資源管理研究所，碩士論文。
9. 蔡翠娉(2007)，台灣大專畢業青年就業力之調查分析，國立交通大學經營管理研究所，碩士論文。
10. 謝佳伶(2018)，運用存活分析探討中高齡求職者尋職期間之影響因素，國立中央大學人力資源管理研究所，碩士論文。
英文參考文獻：
1. Audas, R, Berde, E. and Dolton, P.(2005), “Youth Unemployment and Labour Market Transitions in Hungary”, Education Economics, 13(1), 1-25.
2. Becker, G.S.(1971), The Economics of Discrimination, University of Chicago Press., Chicago.
3. Doeringer, P. B., and Piore, M. J.,(1971), Internal Labor Markets and Manpower Analysis, Heath Publishing, Lexington, Massachusetts.
4. Grahm, M.E., Hotchkiss, J.L., and Gerhart, B. (2000), “Discrimination by parts: A fixed-effects analysis of starting pay differences across gender”, Eastern Economic Journal, 26, 9-28.
5. Gullason, E. T.(1998), “A test of the validity of the screening hypothesis versus the human capital theory using the Wu-Hausman specification test for endogeneity”, Journal of Applied Business Research, 14-21.
6. Gullason, E. T.(1999), “The stability pattern of sheepskin effects and its implications for the human capital theory- screen hypothesis debate”, Eastern Economic Journal, 25, 141-159.
7. Hall, D. T. and Mansfield, P. (1975), “Relationship of Age and Seniority with Career Variables of Engineers and Scientists”, Journal of Applied Psychology, 60, 201-210.
8. Hungerford, T., and Solon, G. (1987), “Sheepskin Effects in the Returns to Education”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 69, 175.
9. Kasper, H. (1984), “Unemployment Among New Entrants to the Labor Force: A Second Look at the New Employment”, Labor Law Journal, 35, 475-480.
10. Orazem, P.F., Werbel, J.D., and McElroy, J.C.(2003). “Market expectations, job search, and gender differences in starting pay”, Journal of London Research, 24, 307.
11. Piore, M. J.(1972), ”Notes for a Theory of Labor Market Stratification”, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Department of Economics, Working papers 95.
12. Reuben Gronau (1971),”Information and Frictional Unemployment” , The American Economic Review, 61, 290-301.
13. Schulz, R. M., Bigoness, W. J., and Gagnon, J. P.(1987), “Determinants of Turnover Intentions Among Retail Pharmacists”, Journal of Retailing, 63, 89-98.
網站資料：
1. MBA智庫，職業搜尋理論：https://wiki.mbalib.com/zh-tw/%E8%81%8C%E4%B8%9A%E6%90%9C%E5%AF%BB%E7%90%86%E8%AE%BA
2. OCED Data, Youth unemployment rate : https://data.oecd.org/unemp/youth-unemployment-rate.htm#indicator-chart
3. Sophia project，Cox迴歸分析 (Cox Regression) ：http://rstudio-pubs-static.s3.amazonaws.com/378044_15f915c19a8548ea94138b1dcaf4854b.html
4. 行政院主計總處：https://www.dgbas.gov.tw/
5. 勞動部全球資訊網，族群勞動統計-青少年專區：https://www.mol.gov.tw/statistics/2462/2464/?Page=1&PageSize=10
6. 蕭亦琮(2010)，生統e報，中國醫藥大學統計中心：http://biostatdept.cmu.edu.tw/doc/epaper_a/paper/teaching_corner_043-2.pdf
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