探討企業未來性資產對分析師盈餘預測與推薦不一致之影響

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姓名

馬博宇(Bo-Yu Ma) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

企業管理學系

論文名稱

探討企業未來性資產對分析師盈餘預測與推薦不一致之影響
(The Inconsistency between Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts and Recommendations due to Assets that Do Not Generate Instant Benefits)

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摘要(中)

本研究在探討企業未來性資產較高的特性是否會反應在分析師預測行為上，過去的研究認為分析師盈餘預測與推薦不一致的主要原因是分析師受承銷關係影響，迫於企業管理層壓力做出樂觀預測。本研究主要以企業未來性資產的水準對分析師盈餘預測與推薦的不一致性進行解釋，同時研究分析師能力是否增加了分析師盈餘預測與推薦不一致的幅度。本研究期長為2008至2018年，藉由無形資產(IA)與不動產、廠房及設備(PPE)兩個代表未來性資產的主要變數衡量檢測分析師修正預測報告次數與追蹤人數是否會隨著企業未來性資產的水準增加而增加；是否企業未來性資產越高，分析師預測分歧度越高；企業未來性資產水準是否對分析師盈餘預測和推薦之偏離程度具解釋力。本研究實證結果發現，分析師更願意追蹤未來性資產高的企業，對未來性資產高的公司發佈更多的預測修正報告；不動產、廠房及設備越高，分析師的預測分歧越大；企業未來性資產會影響分析師盈餘預測與推薦的偏離，但預測能力更強分析師的盈餘預測與推薦之偏離程度沒有更高。另外本研究亦檢測，存貨和在建工程這類提升企業暫時性盈餘、不影響企業未來盈餘的資產也會導致分析師盈餘預測和推薦不一致，實證結果發現公司暫時性資產會影響分析師盈餘預測和推薦的不一致。

摘要(英)

The purpose of this study is to explore whether assets that do not generate instant benefits will reflect on the inconsistency between analysts′ earnings forecasts and recommendations, previous studies mainly believed that the reason why the analyst′s earnings forecasts was inconsistent with the recommendations was due to the influence of the underwriting relationship, made optimistic predictions under pressure from managers. This study mainly explains the inconsistency between analysts’ earnings forecasts and recommendations based on assets that do not generate instant benefits, also investigate whether the ability of analysts increases the inconsistent amplitude between analysts’ earnings forecasts and recommendations. The simple period is from 2008 to 2018, through the intangible asset (IA) and property, plant and equipment (PPE) two proxy measures to investigate whether the frequency of analysts revising earnings forecasts and the number of analysts following will increase with the increase of the. Whether the more assets that do not generate instant benefits there were, the higher the divergence of analysts′ forecasts. Whether the level of the assets that do not generate instant benefits has explanation to the deviation degree of analysts’ earnings forecasts and recommendations. The empirical results show that analysts preferred to follow enterprise with the assets increasing long-shot intrinsic value, and they issue more forecast covariance for enterprise with the high assets that do not generate instant benefits. The higher the property, plant and equipment, the greater the divergence in analysts′ earnings forecasts. The assets that do not generate instant benefits will affect the deviation between analysts’ earnings forecasts and recommendations, but the high ability analysts will not affect the inconsistency. Furthermore, this study finds that assets that improved the temporary earnings, such as inventory and construction in progress, can also result in inconsistency between analysts’ earnings forecasts and recommendations.

關鍵字(中)

★ 分析師
★ 未來性資產
★ 盈餘預測
★ 預測與推薦不一致

關鍵字(英)

★ Analyst
★ Assets that Do Not Generate Instant Benefits
★ Earnings Forecasts
★ Inconsistency between Analysts′ Earnings Forecasts and Recommendations

論文目次

摘要 i
Abstract ii
誌謝 iv
表目錄 vii
一、緒論 1
二、文獻探討 4
2-1 分析師報告的資訊意涵 4
2-2 無形資產的特性 6
2-3 不動產、廠房及設備的特性 8
2-4 分析師盈餘預測與推薦不一致的原因 8
2-5 研究假說 11
三、研究方法 14
3-1 資料來源與樣本選擇 14
3-2 實證模型 14
3-2-1 假說一實證模型 14
3-2-2 假說二實證模型 16
3-2-3 假說三實證模型 17
3-3 變數 18
3-3-1 企業價值與股價比 18
3-3-2 分析師能力 21
3-3-3 分析師的承銷關係 23
3-3-4 其他控制變數 24
四、研究結果 26
4-1 假說一實證分析 26
4-1-1 假說一敘述性統計 26
4-1-2 假說一迴歸結果 27
4-2 假說二實證分析 27
4-2-1 假說二敘述性統計 27
4-2-2 假說二迴歸結果 28
4-3 假說三實證分析 29
4-3-1 假說三敘述性統計 29
4-3-2 假說三迴歸結果 30
4-4 附加檢驗 31
五、研究結論 34
參考文獻 36

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指導教授

黃承祖(Cheng-Tsu Huang)

審核日期

2019-6-28

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