不確定性對經濟表現的影響：與普惠金融和創新有關嗎？

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潘振民(Chen-Min Pan) 查詢紙本館藏

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財務金融學系

論文名稱

不確定性對經濟表現的影響：與普惠金融和創新有關嗎？
(The Impact of Uncertainty on Economic Performance: Do Financial Inclusion and Innovation Matter?)

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至系統瀏覽論文 (2026-3-29以後開放)

摘要(中)

本文使用包含1984-2017年期間24個已開發和開發中國家為研究樣本，我們發現促進普惠金融或投入研發(R&D)，可以抵消不確定性對經濟表現的負面衝擊，而研發(R&D)對不確定性的抵消效果在統計上顯著大於普惠金融對不確定性的抵消效果。此外，在我們的子樣本分析中發現，普惠金融和研發(R&D)的緩解作用只存在於非金融危機時期，已開發國家和歐洲地區樣本中。為了降低內生性問題，我們採用兩階段最小平方迴歸模型(2SLS)，並且使用了六個工具變數進行實證分析。本文的實證結果對於政府處理經濟政策不確定性具有政策意涵，且可以提供給各國政策制定者當做參考。

摘要(英)

Using a dataset that includes 24 developed and developing countries for the period 1984–2017, we find that promoting financial inclusion or research and development (R&D) can offset the harmful effects of uncertainty on economic performance and that the impact of R&D with uncertainty is statistically significantly greater than the impact of financial inclusion with uncertainty. Moreover, our subsample analyses indicate that the mitigating effects of financial inclusion and R&D exist in nonfinancial crisis periods, developed countries, and the European region. To address endogeneity concerns, we employ six instrumental variables in a two-stage least squares regression. Our findings have useful policy implications to government for dealing with economic policy uncertainty for the economy’s benefit.

關鍵字(中)

★ 普惠金融
★ R&D
★ 經濟政策不確定性
★ 經濟成長

關鍵字(英)

★ Financial inclusion
★ R&D
★ economic policy uncertainty
★ economic performance

論文目次

摘要 i
Abstract ii
誌謝 iii
Table of Contents iv
List of Tables v
1. Introduction 1
2. Literature Review and Hypotheses Development 5
3. Data 9
3.1. Data Source 9
3.2. Variable Description 10
3.3. Summary Statistics 11
4. Methodology 12
5. Empirical Results 14
5.1. Baseline Results 14
5.2. High (Low) financial inclusion and R&D estimation 18
5.3. The role of different subsamples 19
6. Robustness 21
6.1. Different proxies for financial inclusion 21
6.2. Consumption and investment channels 22
7. Conclusion 23
Appendix 24
Reference 27

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指導教授

王志瑋(Chih-Wei Wang)

審核日期

2021-6-1

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