天然災害風險管理決策方法建立—以地震災害為例

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姓名

曾惇彬(Chun-pin Tseng) 查詢紙本館藏

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土木工程學系

論文名稱

天然災害風險管理決策方法建立—以地震災害為例
(DECISION METHODOLOGY ESTABLISHMENT FOR NATURAL DISASTERS RISK MANAGEMENT – EARTHQUAKE AS AN EXAMPLE)

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摘要(中)

我國位處於亞洲大陸板塊擠壓帶，地處地震、颱風、洪水等天然災害發生頻繁地區，其對國人生命、財產安全造成嚴重威脅。921集集大地震及918 納莉颱風造成空前重大災難，其中921 地震所造成經濟損失約3000 億元，已引發政府與社會大眾對防災與風險管理之重視。
地震事件之發生為大自然現象，以人類現有之科技尚無法預測或阻止其發生，惟有以事前之天然災害風險管理措施，來減低其可能導致損失及其對個人、企業或政府之衝擊。災害風險的主要管理措施有三種，包含自留(Retention)、減災(Mitigation)及移轉(Transfer)等三種，而該採用何種災害風險管理策略，則可依風險分析之資訊，如災害之危害度、標的物的易損性及風險曝露值等，進行風險管理決策。
本論文初探國內天然災害風險管理環境，提出天然災害風險管理措施之經濟效益分析架構；分別為風險管理決策流程、風險控制效用分析和風險控制財務機率分析。對政府或私人企業而言，有數種建物風險控制措施，如：補強結構、購買保險、發行巨災債券及實施緊急應變計畫等。吾人將定義何謂最適化決策且評估之，並提出經濟效用條件最適化分析，此研究之目的在於建立最適化的決策以決定保險和風險控制計畫，此決策同時考慮各措施之災害防治經濟效益(如:降低災害損失)已知條件平衡。此模型分析之結果可進一步比較各風險控制措施以決定措施優先性，並幫助評估其效益性。

摘要(英)

This dissertation presents extended frameworks of strategic analysis for natural disaster risk control. Natural disasters have properties of low frequency and severe loss, especially catastrophic flood and earthquake. For government or a private company, there are several kinds of actions for flood and earthquake risk control, i.e. structure retrofitting, insurance policy purchasing, catastrophe bond issuing, emergency planning and subsidiary reserve (for workers compensation and etc.). The direct and indirect economic losses caused by the simulated disasters can be estimated using the engineering and financial analysis model. Basing on the model, we can calculate how much loss will be ceased or transferred to other entities, if some budgets spent on risk control actions.
In addition, from various points of view, I try to define the optimal strategy and evaluate it. There are two bundles of models proposed: deterministic analysis models and stochastic analysis models. Deterministic analysis models include two kinds of concepts: interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and economic utility constrained-maximization. Stochastic models start with EP (Exceeding probability) curve into various fascinating optimal models. The background and purpose of this study are to establish a strategy to determine the risk control plan in which consideration is given to the balance with the economic effects (e.g. decrease in damage cost) due to disaster prevention. ISM developed acts as a tool for top management to understand the variables of natural disaster risk control. Though ISM is developed on the basis of perception of the experts of natural disaster risks, the results are quite generic and helpful for the top management to drive the efforts towards the roots of the problem. Furthermore, in economic utility constrained-maximization and stochastic models, these values were compared between those risk control actions to determine the priority and provide data to help evaluate the profitability of each risk control action.
Several aspects of risk and uncertainty are discussed within the context of economic utility constrained-maximization models with a major focus on the importance of risk and uncertainty in research evaluation, how strategy determines insurance and risk control plans, and a real-world example dealing with risk and uncertainty. The core of a default risk-based probabilistic decision model is the development of an "exceeding probability curve" that synthesizes stochastic dominance test results to rank the ordering of risk control and accounts for different decision makers’’ biases with respect to risk. Some further analyses are described that complement stochastic dominance in significant ways.

關鍵字(中)

★ 風險控制
★ 天然災害

關鍵字(英)

★ risk control action
★ Natural disasters

論文目次

Contents
Abstract …………………………………………………… i
Contents
…………………………………………………… iv
List of Tables
…………………………………………………… v
List of Figures …………………………………………………… vi
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Overview of the risk management planning process 7
1.2 Nature of risk and uncertainty in the planning process 8
1.3 Risk and uncertainty management techniques 13
1.3.1 Decision Trees 13
1.3.2 Heuristics 14
1.3.3 Incremental Strategy 16
1.3.4 Strategic Choice Approach 16
1.3.5 Multi-objective, Multi-attribute Utility Theory and Goal Programming 17
1.3.6 Expected Utility Theory 18
1.4 Topical Outline 19
Chapter 2 Risk and Uncertainty Analysis in the Planning Steps 23
2.1 Specifications of problems and opportunities 24
2.1.1 Problem Identification 26
2.1.2 Stakeholders’ Views 28
2.1.3 Attitudes toward Risk and Uncertainty 29
2.1.4 Risk and Uncertainty Objectives 30
2.2 Inventory and Forecasting 31
2.2.1 Identification of Issues and Important Variables 31
2.2.2 Methods for Addressing Risk and Uncertainty Issues 34
2.2.3 Multiple without Project Conditions 35
2.3 Formulation of Alternative Plans (Evaluation) 36
2.3.1 Formulating Sets of Alternatives 36
2.3.2 Risk Management 38
2.4 Comparison of Alternative Plans - Detailed Evaluations 39
2.4.1 Evaluation of Alternatives' Contribution to Planning Objectives 40
2.4.2 Avoiding the Appearance of Certainty 41
2.4.3 Transition in Focus of Risk and Uncertainty Analysis 42
2.5 Comparison of Alternatives - Detailed Analysis 43
2.5.1 Cumulative Effects of Risk and Uncertainty 43
2.5.2 Comparison of Risk and Uncertainty Aspects of Plans 44
2.5.3 Displaying Results of Comparison 44
2.6 Plan Selection 45
2.6.1 Risk and Uncertainty Management 45
2.7 Probabilistic Earthquake Loss Assessment 47
2.7.1 Stochastic Earthquake Event Generator 50
2.7.2 Hazard Analysis Procedure 51
2.7.3 Vulnerability Analysis Procedure 52
2.7.4 Financial Analysis Procedure 53
Chapter 3 Natural Disaster Risk Control and Insurance Issues in Taiwan 60
3.1 Risk Control Strategy 63
3.1.1 Insurance purchasing 63
3.1.2 Alternative Transfer of Catastrophe Risk 65
3.1.3 Causal Loop 66
3.2 Business protection 68
3.3 Business interruption insurance 70
3.3.1 Property insurance for Earthquakes, Typhoons, and Floods in Taiwan 71
3.3.2 Analysis and discussion of data of Taiwan Insurance Institute 73
3.3.3 Analysis and discussion on Data of an Insurance Company 75
3.4 Company manager’s tolerance of risk in risk management 79
3.4.1 Introduction 80
3.4.2 Methodology 80
3.4.3 Analysis and discussion 84
3.4.4 Conclusions: 87
3.5 Optimal Strategy Evaluation 88
3.5.1 Deterministic analysis models 89
3.5.2 The Approach 89
3.5.3 Basic cost-benefit analysis 90
3.5.4 Risk-Cost-Benefit Tradeoff 94
Chapter 4 Risk Control Decision Models 95
4.1 Modeling variables of natural disaster risk control 96
4.1.1 Variable identification of natural disaster risk control 96
4.1.2 Methodology 105
4.1.3 Development of digraph. 120
4.1.4 Discussion 123
4.1.5 Limitations and scope for future work. 124
4.1.6 Conclusion 125
4.2 Economic Utility Constrained-Maximization Model 127
4.2.1 Insurance Program 127
4.2.2 Unfair Insurance Premium Rates 129
4.2.3 The Optimum Arrangement Problem 130
4.2.4 Model Assumptions 133
4.2.5 Case 1 140
4.2.6 Case 2 146
4.2.7 Conclusion 148
4.3 Default Risk-Based Probabilistic Decision Model 149
4.3.1 Probabilistic Risk Control Arrangement Problem 150
4.3.2 Tolerable Ruin Probability 152
4.3.3 Monte Carlo Method 156
4.3.4 Probabilistic Risk Control Arrangement Problem Model 157
4.3.5 Case 1 159
4.3.6 Case 2 167
4.3.7 Discussion 169
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Suggestions 171
5.1 Conclusions 171
5.2 Challenge 173
5.3 Important Issues for Natural Disaster Management in the Future 174
Reference: 178
Appendix I 187
Appendix II 196
List of Tables
Table 1: Overview of outputs and exit criteria of the process, Jyrki Kontio, Gerhard Getto & Dieter Landes (1998) 26
Table 2: For commercial firms: The spending distributions of insurance coverage are shown as follows: (unit: NT dollars in billions). 73
Table 3: For industrial firms: The spending distributions of insurance coverage are shown as follows: (unit: NT dollars in billions) 73
Table 4: Correlation matrix, N = total samples. 77
Table 5: Correlation matrix, N= BI samples. 78
Table 6: terms used in the questionnaire 81
Table 7: Degree of risk management action. 84
Table 8: Correlation matrixes under different risk preference. 86
Table 9: Applications of ISM 106
Table 10: Structural self-interaction matrix (SSIM). 110
Table 11: Initial reachability matrix. 112
Table 12: Final reachability matrix. 113
Table 13: Iteration I. 114
Table 14: Iteration II. 115
Table 15: Iteration III. 115
Table 16: Iteration IV. 116
Table 17：Iteration V. 116
Table 18: Iteration VI. 117
Table 19: Iteration VII. 117
Table 20: Iteration VIII. 117
Table 21: Iteration IX. 118
Table 22: Levels of risk control variables. 118
Table 23: Conical form of reachability matrix. 120
Table 24: Estimated default probabilities by ratings class, cited by Bank of America. 154
Table 25: Factory A‘s R-percentile of exceeding probability curves and their corresponding amount of total loss. 164
Table 26: Factory B’s R-percentile of exceeding probability curves and their corresponding amount of total loss. 164
List of Figures
Figure 1：Overview of Natural Disasters Risk Control Strategy Flow 22
Figure 2: The risk management cycle 25
Figure 3: Earthquake loss assessment methodology diagram. (Hsu, et al., 2006) 49
Figure 4: Seismic zones (College of Earth Sciences of National Central University). 51
Figure 5: Construction of the event loss table. (Guy Carpenter & Company) 54
Figure 6: Construction of the aggregate/occurrence of loss exceeding the probability curve. (Guy Carpenter & Company) 55
Figure 7: Exceeding probability curve. 57
Figure 8: Dynamic Financial Analysis Framework. 58
Figure 9: Loss reduction and cost of building retrofitting under various PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration). 61
Figure 10: Loss reduction and cost of insurance purchasing under various PGA. 62
Figure 11: Loss reduction and cost of emergency reaction plans under various PGA. 62
Figure 12: Loss reduction and cost of reserves under various PGA. 63
Figure 13: Earthquake risk control causal loop. 67
Figure 14: Flow diagram for preparing ISM. 108
Figure 15: ISM-based model of the variables for improving risk control after removing indirect links. 122
Figure 16: The probability that actions a1 and a2 will reduce 12 units of damage loss. 141
Figure 17: Expected optimal insurance policies purchase schedule while a1 =6.00, a2=6.00. 145
Figure 18: EP curves of factory A built according to 1974, 1982 and 1999 Taiwan Building Codes. 161
Figure 19: EP curves of factory B built according to 1974, 1982 and 1999Taiwan Building Codes. 161
Figure 20: EP curves of factory A under several insurance policy conditions. 162
Figure 21: EP curves of factory B under several insurance policy conditions. 163
Figure 22: Ten years EP curves of factory A built according to 1974, 1982 and 1999 Taiwan Building Codes. 168
Figure 23: Ten years EP curves of factory B built according to 1974, 1982 and 1999 Taiwan Building Codes. 169

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指導教授

蔣偉寧(Weling Chiang)

審核日期

2009-2-5

推文