| 摘要(英) |
Taiwan’s PCB industry belongs to vertical disintegration. In this research, we explore the stock price variation between the PCB upstream equipment manufacturing industry, H company, and downstream clients.
Around 2000s, Taiwan PCB renowned companies tried to sell inventory and reduce labor costs. During this period of time, China gave foreign investors preferential treatment. Famous PCB companies planned to build factories in China due to the allure of preferential policies. For this reason, PCB equipment manufacturing started to export equipment to clients’ overseas factories, and the transaction currency was mainly used in US dollars. The US dollar serves as Taiwan′s primary observational exchange rate indicator, as it has changed dramatically, and it would easily cause a loss of remittances.
The Purchasing Managers′ Index (PMI) is the leading indicator for observing future market conditions. In this research, we set PMI as one of the important explanatory variables and explored the influence of PMI change on H company’s stock price.
In this research, the analysis is based on the below time series data (Sep2012 to Aug2022) : First, PCB upstream equipment manufacturing, H company and its downstream clients’ stock prices, consolidated monthly revenue. Second, the equipment manufacturer’s monthly shipped quantity, exchange rate, and PMI.
We also used the ADF test to check if H company’s stock price and other variables had the condition of a first-order autoregressive model. Additionally, we use the multiple regression analysis model and Prais-Winsten estimation to adjust the error term of the first-order autoregressive problem.
The result of regression analysis shows a significant but negative correlation in the exchange rate. The PMI shows the significance and positive correlation in the time lag of about six months. It shows the linked effect between PCB upstream equipment manufacturing industry and downstream clients’ stock prices. |
| 參考文獻 |
中文文獻
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