台灣低利率環境下財政政策有效性之分析

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游晴薇查詢紙本館藏

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經濟學系

論文名稱

台灣低利率環境下財政政策有效性之分析

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至系統瀏覽論文 (2025-7-31以後開放)

摘要(中)

本研究旨在探討台灣低利率環境下的財政政策有效性，我們將台灣 1981:1 至2021:3 的樣本資料切割成了正常時期與低利率時期，根據 Blanchard and Perotti (2002)提出的認定方法認定出未預期的台灣政府支出衝擊，運用平滑局部投射模型估計各總體變數對政府支出衝擊的反應，本研究所關心的變數有: 實質 GDP、民間消費、民間投資、名目利率以及物價，研究發現兩種不同時期的台灣財政政策效果會有所不同，第一，低利率時期的產出乘數會顯著大於正常時期，但兩種時期的乘數值皆會小於一，第二，低
利率時期擴張性的政府支出衝擊會對民間消費產生排擠效果，但對民間投資強烈的擠入效果導致低利率時期的產出乘數會顯著為正；相反的，正常時期會刺激民間消費，但排擠民間投資，強烈的排擠效果導致正常時期的產出乘數在排擠效果消失前皆顯著為負。面對政府支出增加的衝擊，低利率時期的名目利率會大幅下降，通膨率則並不會受到影響；相反的，正常時期的名目利率及通膨率皆會顯著上升，故低利率時期下的擴張性政府支出衝擊會導致實質利率的下跌，而正常時期的實質利率反應方向則未定，上述結果顯示台灣近期低利率環境下的擴張性財政政策會較正常時期更有效。

摘要(英)

The purpose of this research is to investigate the efficacy of Taiwan’s fiscal policy in a zero lower bound (ZLB) environment. We split our sample between 1981Q1 and
2021Q3 into a normal period and a ZLB period. Following Blanchard and Perotti (2002), we identify unexpected Taiwanese government spending shock and estimate the impulse
responses of macroeconomic variables using smooth local projections. The variables of interest include real GDP, private consumption, private investment, nominal interest rate, and price level. Our results indicate that the effects of Taiwanese fiscal policy are different in the two periods. First, output multiplier during the ZLB period is higher than that during the normal period, however both no greater than one. Second, an expansionary government spending shock during the ZLB period crowds out the private consumption;
however, the resulting strong crowd-in effect on the private investment leads to a positive output multiplier. On the contrary, an expansionary government spending shock during
the normal period crowds in the private consumption and strongly crowds out the private investment, which leads to a negative output multiplier in the short run. Responding to
a positive government spending shock, during the ZLB period the nominal interest rate declines considerably while inflation rate barely changes. Conversely, during the normal
period nominal interest rate rises as inflation rate increases. Accordingly, an expansionary government spending shock will result in a falling real interest rate during the ZLB period, and have an uncertain result during the normal period. This result suggests that Taiwan’s recent expansionary fiscal policy in a ZLB environment is more effective than during thenormal period

關鍵字(中)

★ 財政政策
★ 流動性陷阱
★ 制度訊息法
★ 平滑局部投射模型

關鍵字(英)

★ fiscal policy
★ liquidity trap
★ institutional information approach
★ smooth local projection model

論文目次

1 緒論 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2 文獻回顧 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
3 數據說明 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.1 資料來源與變數定義 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.2 變數處理 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.3 單根檢定 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3.4 資料初探 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
4 計量模型與估計方法 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
4.1 認定財政衝擊 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
4.2 衝擊反應函數 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
4.3 估計累積乘數 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
5 迴歸結果 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
5.1 財政衝擊認定 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
5.2 衝擊反應函數 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
5.3 累積乘數 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
5.4 新凱因斯理論 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
6 穩健性檢定 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
6.1 消費者物價指數 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
6.2 加入政府支出衝擊落後項 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
6.3 政府支出組成項目之排擠效果 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
7 結論 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
參考文獻 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

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指導教授

姚睿(Ruey-Yau)

審核日期

2022-8-8

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