從衛星觀測看西北太平洋熱帶氣旋快速增強的前兆

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普傑森(Jason Pajimola Punay) 查詢紙本館藏

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大氣科學學系

論文名稱

從衛星觀測看西北太平洋熱帶氣旋快速增強的前兆
(On the Precursors to Rapid Intensification of the Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific from Satellite Observations)

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至系統瀏覽論文 (2025-12-31以後開放)

摘要(中)

為了增進西北太平洋熱帶氣旋 (TC) 的快速增強 (RI) 的預報能力，本研究使用了衛星遙測資料探討 RI 的前兆。分析包含深對流雲 (DCC)、降水、各種強度階段和增強類別之雲屬性，以及極深對流雲 (VDCC) 中的雲微物理特性。分析結果顯示在不同 TC 強度階段中，皆可利用 DCC作為RI前兆；而降水變數則可作為熱帶低氣壓 (TD) 和熱帶風暴階段的 RI 前兆。研究結果亦呈現 TC 中 DCC 溫度的徑向剖面和 TD 中的雲頂高度，可以清楚地將 RI 與其他增強類別區分開來。研究也發現快速增強的 TC 比緩慢增強的 TC ，於最大風速的半徑內具有更多的 DCC 覆蓋面積與雲冰水路徑 (IWP)比率，無論在何種增強階段。RI 初始時和 24 小時後的特徵是風暴當時的強度和強化率的假象。藉由本研究提高對熱帶氣旋快速增強的理解，我們發現: (1) 檢視並深入探討已知快速增強前兆（DCC 和降水）的適用性； (2)在特定強度階段，利用 TC 中的 DCC 溫度和 TD 中的雲頂高度，並使用 VDCC 中的平均 IWP 與其宿主 TC 的比率作為潛在快速增強的前兆因子。

摘要(英)

Toward the advancement in predicting the rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific, precursors to RI are investigated. The TC’s deep convective cloud (DCC), precipitation, and cloud properties for various intensity stages and intensification categories, as well as the cloud microphysical properties in very deep convective clouds (VDCCs) are examined. This study determined the appropriateness of utilizing the DCC in all TC intensity stages, and the precipitation in tropical depression (TD) and tropical storm stages, as precursors to RI. The study indicated that the radial profile of DCC temperature in major TC, and cloud top height in TD can plainly delineate RI from other intensification categories. Rapidly intensifying TCs are found to have a greater VDCC to TC mean ice water path (IWP) ratio than slowly intensifying TCs, regardless of TC intensity stage. The characteristics at the onset and 24 h of RI are artifacts of the storm’s then current intensity and intensification rate. Results found in this study can be used to improve our understanding of TC RI, by (1) providing new insights on the suitability in using the previously known precursors to RI (DCC and precipitation), and (2) proposing potential precursors to RI at specific intensity stages (DCC temperature in major TC and cloud top height in TD), and using the ratio of the mean IWP in VDCC and its host TC.

關鍵字(中)

★ 热带气旋
★ 快速强化
★ 云属性
★ 雨量
★ 深对流云
★ 前体

關鍵字(英)

★ Tropical cyclone
★ Rapid intensification
★ Cloud properties
★ Rainfall
★ Deep convective cloud
★ Precursor

論文目次

Table of Contents
摘要 i
Abstract ii
Acknowledgments iii
Table of Contents iv
List of Tables vi
List of Figures vii
List of Abbreviations xi
Chapter 1. Introduction 1
1.1 Motivation 1
1.2 Objectives 5
1.3 Dissertation Outline 5
Chapter 2. Characteristics of Deep Convective Clouds, Precipitation, and Cloud Properties of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific 6
2.1. Introduction 7
2.2. Data and Methods 11
2.3. Results 14
2.3.1. Mean DCC, Precipitation, and Cloud Properties 15
2.3.2. Radial Distributions 18
2.3.3. Characteristics During Initial and Continuing RI 25
2.4. Summary 29
Chapter 3. Cloud Microphysical Properties of Very Deep Convective Clouds of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific 33
3.1. Introduction 34
3.2. Data and Methods 36
3.3. Results 38
3.3.1. Cloud Top Height and Cloud Effective Radius 38
3.3.2. Ice Water Path 41
3.3.3. Specific Cloud Ice and Liquid Water Contents, and Vertical Velocity 46
3.4. Summary 50
Chapter 4. Conclusions and Future Works 53
4.1. General Conclusions 53
4.2. Current and Future Works 54
4.2.1 Lead and Lag Time Characteristics of Associated Rain in DCC and VDCC 54
4.2.2. The DCC Features 24 hr Prior to RI 55
Bibliography 57

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指導教授

劉千義鍾高陞(Chian-Yi Liu Kao-Shen Chung)

審核日期

2023-1-13

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