多尺度氣候振盪影響ENSO 組合模態與台灣海峽風場的關聯性變化

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黃宥菘(Yu-Sung Huang) 查詢紙本館藏

畢業系所

大氣科學學系

論文名稱

多尺度氣候振盪影響ENSO 組合模態與台灣海峽風場的關聯性變化
(Link of the ENSO Combination Mode with the Taiwan Strait Wind Field under the Influence of Multi-Scale Climate Oscillations)

相關論文

★ 混合型聖嬰海洋動力演化機制的研究	★ Impacts of Equatorial Ocean Currents on El Niño Simulations in CMIP6 Models
★ 充放電振盪機制在非典型聖嬰演化過程中所扮演的角色	★ The Dynamic of EP and CP El Niño under the Influence of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation

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至系統瀏覽論文 (2025-8-31以後開放)

摘要(中)

近期的研究指出，聖嬰現象與西太平洋暖池季節循環在大氣的非線性交互作用下，會產生氣候組合模態（Combination mode，C-mode），使得聖嬰現象的影響擴展至熱帶以外的地區。然而，C-mode對於台灣海峽的風場影響仍未被完整分析。因此，本研究旨在檢視C-mode與台灣海峽風場之時間變化的關聯性，並且尋找可能調節它們關聯性大小的氣候振盪現象。
　　透過經驗正交函數（Empirical Orthogonal Function，EOF）分析，我們檢視了台灣海峽風場距平第一EOF模態（簡稱為TS mode1）與第二EOF模態（簡稱為TS mode2）的結果，並且計算了C-mode指數分別與TS mode1和TS mode2時序之間的滑移相關係數後，發現前者的相關性較為顯著，因此後續的探討將著重於C-mode指數與TS mode1時序之間的關聯性變化。根據本研究的分析結果，TS mode1顯示的東北風距平空間分布可能受到C mode在西北太平洋引發的異常反氣旋影響。此外，本研究還進一步發現太平洋十年際振盪（Pacific Decadal Oscillation，PDO）可能會調節月平均C mode與TS mode1之間的相關性變化。另一方面，冬季TS mode1與冬季C mode之間的關聯在1990年代以前主要受到PDO影響，在此之後則是由大西洋多年代際振盪（Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation，AMO）現象調節。但是在夏季時期，TS mode1與C-mode之間的關聯性相對較弱，而TS mode1與C-mode的相關性仍主要受到PDO調節。
　　此外，本研究還評估了C-mode與TS mode1/2在42個第六階段耦合氣候模式對比計畫（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6，CMIP6）模式的模擬表現。我們發現大部分CMIP6模式皆能夠模擬出較為合理的TS mode1/2與C-mode風場空間分布，其中KIOST-ESM模式是模擬C-mode與TS mode1/2最為接近觀測值的模式。因此，未來在研究全球暖化對TS mode1/2與C-mode的影響時，KIOST-ESM模式的模擬情形將可以作為一個可靠的選擇。

摘要(英)

Recent studies suggested that the nonlinear atmospheric interactions between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific warm pool annual cycle have been found to induce a near-annual combination mode (C-mode) that could extend the climate impacts of ENSO in the tropical region to the extra-tropical region. Nonetheless, the link of the C-mode to the anomalous wind in the Taiwan Strait remains unclear. This study aimed to examine the relations of the C-mode and the variability of the Taiwan Strait surface wind and explore the possible climate phenomena in modifying their behaviors.
By using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, the first two EOF modes of Taiwan Strait surface wind (TS mode1 and TS mode2) can be obtained. However, we mainly focus on the investigation related to TS mode1 because a more statistically significant running correlation is observed between the temporal change of the C-mode and TS mode1 compared to that of TS mode2. According to our findings, the northeasterly wind anomalies in the TS mode1 pattern could be mainly modified by the anomalous anticyclone in the northwest Pacific generated by the C-mode. Moreover, it can be further revealed that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) tends to modulate the correlation between the monthly variability of the C-mode and TS mode1. On the other hand, the strength of the relations between winter variability of the C-mode and TS mode1 is mainly modulated by the PDO before the early 1990s but by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) after then. Nevertheless, the strength of the relations between the summer variability of these two variables is relatively weak, and it is primarily modulated by the PDO.
Moreover, we assessed the representation of the C-mode and TS mode1/2 in the 42 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The patterns of C-mode and TS mode1/2 are reasonably captured by the majority of CMIP6 models, with the KIOST-ESM model exhibiting the most realistic result. Therefore, the KIOST-ESM model stands out as a reliable choice for investigating the impact of global warming on TS mode1/2 and the C-mode.

關鍵字(中)

★ 氣候組合模態
★ 聖嬰現象
★ 東亞季風
★ 台灣海峽
★ 太平洋十年際振盪
★ 大西洋多年代際振盪
★ 第六階段耦合氣候模式對比計畫

關鍵字(英)

★ Combination Mode (C-mode)
★ El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
★ East Asia Monsoon
★ Taiwan Strait
★ Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
★ Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
★ Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)

論文目次

中文摘要..............................................I
英文摘要.............................................III
致謝..................................................V
目錄.................................................VI
圖目錄.............................................VIII
表目錄...............................................XV
第一章前言..........................................1
第二章資料與方法....................................4
2.1 再分析資料............................4
2.2 氣候指數..............................4
2.3 模式資料..............................5
2.4 研究方法..............................6
第三章台灣海峽月平均風場之經驗正交函數分析............10
3.1 TS modes與C-mode的關聯...............10
3.2 氣候振盪的影響........................17
第四章台灣海峽季節性風場之經驗正交函數分析............22
4.1 冬季平均風場EOF分析...................22
4.2 冬季C-mode與TS mode1之間的關聯........26
4.3 夏季平均風場EOF分析...................34
4.4 夏季C-mode與TS mode1之間的關聯........37
第五章台灣海峽風場在CMIP6模式的模擬..................43
5.1 台灣海峽風場模式表現...................43
5.2 C-mode的模式診斷......................55
第六章結論與討論....................................65
參考文獻..............................................68

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指導教授

王儷樵(Li-Chiao Wang)

審核日期

2023-7-17

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