| 姓名 |
高嘉宏(Chia-Hung Kao)
查詢紙本館藏 |
畢業系所 |
產業經濟研究所在職專班 |
| 論文名稱 |
彩券銷售與消費者購買因素分析
(Factors influencing lottery sales data and consumer characteristics.)
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| 相關論文 | |
| 檔案 |
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| 摘要(中) |
台灣現今的公益彩券發行目的在於提供弱勢族群就業機會以及提升社會福利，惟近10年來市場逐漸趨於飽和，銷售額未見明顯成長，本研究透過收集103年至111年電腦型彩券中，威力彩遊戲的各期銷售資料，以及利用96年至110年的家庭收支調查資料進行研究，以探討當消費者中獎時，是否會將獎金再次投入購買彩券，甚至進行加碼行為，以及消費者購買彩券意願及其購買金額的特徵因素。
本研究先利用普通最小平方法(OLS)作為迴歸估計模型，並輔以Heckman 二步驟估計法，研究結果顯示電腦型彩券的銷售額會受到頭獎獎金的巨大影響，而彩券消費者在中得小獎金的獎項時較有意願持續進行投注活動，隨著中獎的獎金增加，加碼持續投入的金額比例逐漸下降。在彩券消費者的特徵上，本研究以家庭收支調查資料的經濟戶長為研究對象，研究發現男性、有工作者對於購買彩券有較高的意願。另外，家中有上網設備、在休閒文化支出以及菸酒檳榔支出較高的家庭，其經濟戶長對購買彩券的意願有正面影響且具有顯著性。此外，在彩券消費者中，這些因素亦影響彩券購買消費金額，在購買彩券上較有意願的消費族群，也同時會願意在彩券購買上花費更多的金錢，並且在彩券中獎金額超過彩券期望值的消費者，也會願意購買更多的彩券。 |
| 摘要(英) |
The current purpose of public welfare lotteries in Taiwan is to provide employment opportunities for vulnerable populations and enhance social welfare. However, in the past decade, the market has gradually become saturated, and there has been no significant growth in sales. This study collects sales data from the "Power Lottery" game in computerized lottery tickets from 2014 to 2022 and utilizes household income and expenditure survey data from 2007 to 2021 to investigate whether consumers, when they win a prize, reinvest their winnings in purchasing lottery tickets or engage in additional betting behavior. It also examines the factors influencing consumers′ willingness to purchase lottery tickets and the characteristics affecting their purchasing amounts.
The study employs the ordinary least squares (OLS) method as the initial regression estimation model and supplements it with the Heckman two-step estimation method. The research findings indicate that the sales of computerized lottery tickets are significantly influenced by the jackpot prize. Consumers who win smaller prizes are more likely to continue participating in betting activities. As the amount of the prize increases, the proportion of additional investment gradually decreases.
Regarding consumer characteristics, the study focuses on the economic head of households based on the household income and expenditure survey data. The research findings reveal that males and employed individuals demonstrate a higher willingness to purchase lottery tickets. Additionally, households with higher expenditures on internet devices, leisure and cultural activities, as well as tobacco and alcohol, positively and significantly influence the economic head′s willingness to buy lottery tickets. Moreover, these factors also affect the purchasing amounts among lottery consumers. Consumer groups with a higher willingness to purchase lottery tickets are also willing to spend more money on them. Furthermore, consumers who win amounts exceeding the expected value of the lottery ticket are willing to purchase more lottery tickets.
In conclusion, the research findings indicate that the sales of public welfare lotteries in Taiwan are significantly influenced by the jackpot prize. Consumers are more likely to continue betting when they win smaller prizes. Consumer characteristics, such as gender, employment status, and household expenditures, play a role in their willingness to purchase lottery tickets and the amount they are willing to spend. |
| 關鍵字(中) |
★ 公益彩券
★ 家庭收支調查報告
★ 普通最小平方法
★ Heckman 二步驟估計法 |
關鍵字(英) |
★ public welfare lottery
★ household income and expenditure survey report
★ ordinary least squares method
★ Heckman two-step estimation method |
| 論文目次 |
中文摘要 i
英文摘要 ii
誌謝 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 vii
一、緒 論 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 章節安排 3
二、研究背景 4
2.1 公益彩券概況 4
2.2 電腦型彩券與立即型彩券 7
三、文獻回顧 12
四、研究方法 18
4.1 實證模型設定 18
4.1.1威力彩各期銷售數據 18
4.1.2 家庭收支調查資料 18
4.2. 資料來源與變數說明 19
4.2.1 威力彩各期銷售數據 19
4.2.2 家庭收支調查資料 20
4.3 基本統計分析 23
4.3.1 威力彩各期銷售數據 23
4.3.2 家庭收支調查資料基本統計分析 28
五、實證結果 34
5.1 各期銷售數據實證結果 34
5.2 家庭收支調查資料實證結果 38
六、結論 43
6.1 研究發現 43
6.2 研究意涵與政策建議 44
6.2 研究限制與未來研究方向 45
參考文獻 46 |
| 參考文獻 |
一、 中文部分
吳文星(1988)，「日據時期臺灣彩票制度之探討」，《師大學報》33：283-300
田瑞駒、張志雄、林秋萍、陳怡珊、謝宜珊、盧映璇(2017)，「彩券銷售額之分析」，《華人經濟研究》15(1) : 67-80
林靖中、康信鴻與詹司如(2004)，「以時間數列觀點談樂透銷售量之行銷策略意涵」，《臺大管理論叢》 15(2)：99-121
林士奇、侯堂柱與趙定濤(2007)，「高雄地區樂透彩券購買行為之研究」，《華醫學報》 27：151-169
曾維國(2003)，「彩券自行選號隨機性之研究－以台灣樂透彩中獎人數統計分析為例」，《九十一學年度中國海事商業專科學校學報》：55-72
張威龍、鄭如珍與蕭君華(2007)，「樂透購買行為、金錢態度和其它強迫性行為之關係」，《行銷評論》 4(2) : 243-261
劉代洋、楊志唯(2001)，「臺灣地區公益彩券獎金結構之分析」，《管理與系統》，8(3)：335-348
二、 英文部分
Ariyabuddhiphongs, Vanchai (2011). “Lottery Gambling: A Review,” Journal of Gambling Studies, 27(1):15-33
Burger, M. J., M. Hendriks, E. Pleeging and P. W. van der Zwan (2016) “The Silver Linings of Lottery Play: Motivation and Subjective Well-being of British Lottery Participants,” Applied Economics Letters, 23(18) : 1312-1316
Gabrielyan, Gnel and David R. Just (2020). “Economic Shocks and Lottery Sales: an Examination of Maine State Lottery Sales,” Applied Economics, 52(32) : 3498-3511.
Haesevoets, Tessa, Kim Dierckx and Alain Van Hiel (2022). “Do People Believe that You Can Have too Much Money? The Relationship between Hypothetical Lottery Wins and ExpectedHhappiness,” Judgment and Decision Making, 17(6) : 1229-1254.
Lin, Chin-Tsai and Chien-Hua Lai (2006). “Substitute effects between Lotto and Big Lotto in Taiwan,” Applied Economics Letters, 13(10) : 655-658.
Suetens, Sigrid, Claus B. Galbo-Jørgensen, and Jean-Robert Tyran (2016). “Predicting Lotto Numbers : A Natural Experiment on the Gambler′s Fallacy and the Hot-Hand Fallacy,” Journal of the European Economic Association, 14(3) : 584-607
Wang, Jen Hung, Larry Y. Tzeng and Junji Tien (2006) “Willingness to Pay and the Demand for Lotto, “ Applied Economics, 38:10, 1207-1216
Yuan, Jia and Jason Z. Gao (2015) “What Drives Lottery Demand? Evidence from China′s Lottery Practice,” International Gambling Studies, 15(1) : 159-178 |
| 指導教授 |
劉錦龍(Jin-Long Liu)
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審核日期 |
2023-7-21 |
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