考慮地質模型與參數不確定性 對Vs30分布圖之影響—以台北盆地測試區為例

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姓名	林頤謙(Yi-Cian Lin) 查詢紙本館藏	畢業系所	應用地質研究所
論文名稱	考慮地質模型與參數不確定性對Vs30分布圖之影響—以台北盆地測試區為例
檔案	[Endnote RIS 格式] [Bibtex 格式] [相關文章] [文章引用] [完整記錄] [館藏目錄] 至系統瀏覽論文 (2025-7-1以後開放)
摘要(中)	場址效應為地震危害度評估重要影響因素之一。地表下30m內之平均剪力波速 (Vs30) 則是一個評估場址效應的重要參數，於在強地動預估式、地盤分類標準、液化潛能評估等，均有廣泛的應用。過去有許多探討區域性Vs30分布圖測繪之研究，主要方法係根據土壤物性與剪力波速轉換式求得區域鑽孔處之剪力波速與Vs30，再根據各鑽孔位置Vs30值，利用地質統計的方法對Vs30進行空間內插，但上述方法未能直接將地質及物性參數的空間變異性納入考慮。本研究利用馬可夫隨機場 (Markov random field, MRF) 方法進行地質模型隨機場模擬，並統計各地層物性參數分布特性，以台北盆地測試區進行模擬，再利用前人土壤物性與剪力波速轉換式，計算剪力波速及Vs30，並量化Vs30之不確定性 (包含地質模型與物性參數) ，本研究亦探討有無考慮台北盆地基盤與礫石層空間分布對Vs30計算結果之影響。研究結果顯示，未考慮台北盆地基盤的空間分布，在分析台北盆地北緣處Vs30時，相較於考慮台北盆地基盤的空間分布，低估了超過40%以上，顯示地質知識對地質模型建模及後續分析之重要性。本研究亦針對地質模型不確定性對Vs30不確定性之影響進行分析，結果顯示當地質模型不確定性越大的地方，其Vs30不確定性也越高，因此未來相關人員在計算Vs30時，地質模型與地質模型不確定性為需要列入考慮之重要因素。
摘要(英)	Site effect is one of the important factors in assessing seismic hazards. The average shear wave velocity within the top 30 meters from the ground surface (Vs30) is a significant parameter used to evaluate site effect. It is widely applied in strong ground motion prediction equations, site classification standards, liquefaction potential assessment and etc. Previous studies have extensively explored the mapping of regional Vs30 distributions. The main approach involves determining the shear wave velocity at regional borehole locations based on the transformation functions of soil properties and shear wave velocity, and then interpolating Vs30 values through geological statistical methods. However, these methods do not directly account for the spatial variability of geology and soil physical properties. This study employs the Markov random field (MRF) method to simulate geological models as stochastic fields and statistically analyze the distribution characteristics of various lithological properties. The study area is the Taipei Basin, where simulations are conducted. Subsequently, utilizing established relationships between soil physical properties and shear wave velocity, this study calculates shear wave velocities and Vs30 values, quantifying the uncertainty associated with Vs30(including geological model and soil physical property uncertainties). This study also discusses the impact of considering the spatial distribution of the basement in the Taipei Basin on the calculation of Vs30. The results demonstrate that neglecting the spatial distribution of the basement in the Taipei Basin underestimates Vs30 by over 40% when analyzing the northern margin of the basin compared to considering the spatial distribution of the basement. This highlights the importance of incorporating geological knowledge in geological modeling and subsequent analyses. Furthermore, this study analyzes the influence of geological model uncertainty on the uncertainty of Vs30. The findings indicate that locations with greater geological model uncertainty correspond to higher uncertainty in Vs30. Therefore, future practitioners involved in Vs30 calculations should consider both the geological model and its associated uncertainty as crucial factors to be taken into account.
關鍵字(中)	★ 地質模型 ★ 地質不確定性 ★ 馬可夫隨機場 ★ Vs30 ★ 台北盆地	關鍵字(英)	★ Geological model ★ Geological uncertainty ★ Markov random field ★ Vs30 ★ Taipei Basin
論文目次	摘要 II Abstract III 致謝 IV 目錄 V 圖目錄 VII 表目錄 X 第一章緒論 1 第二章研究區概述 6 第三章資料庫建置 12 3.1 地質調查所工程地質探勘資料庫 12 3.2 強震測站場址工程地質資料庫 18 3.3 水文地質資料庫 21 3.4 李錫堤等人 (2002) 為建立基盤高程分布而建置之資料 23 第四章研究方法 24 4.1 建立台北盆地基盤與松山層下伏之礫石層頂面模型 24 4.1.1 台北盆地基盤高程之判定 24 4.1.2 台北盆地松山層下伏之礫石層頂面高程判定 26 4.1.3 基盤與松山層下伏之礫石層頂面空間內插：克利金法 31 4.2 建立台北盆地測試區地質及物性參數模型與不確定性 38 4.2.1 松山層地層分層判定與各層物性參數統計 39 4.2.2 地層模擬與地層相依之物性參數模擬 46 4.3 台北盆地測試區 VS30計算 57 4.4 量化地質模型不確定性對 VS30不確定性影響之方法 60 第五章研究結果 61 5.1 台北盆地基盤與松山層下伏之礫石層頂面高程空間內插成果 61 5.2 台北盆地測試區三維地質模型與不確定性 64 5.3 台北盆地測試區物性參數模型與不確定性 71 5.4 台北盆地測試區 VS30空間分布與不確定性 78 第六章討論 81 6.1 基盤對Vs30分布圖之影響與前人成果之比較 81 6.2 不確定性對 VS30成果之影響 86 第七章結論 89 參考文獻 90
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指導教授	董家鈞盧育辰(Jia-Jyun Dong Yu-Chen Lu)	審核日期	2023-7-24
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