臺灣地區分簇主震及其最大餘震之統計分析

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劉怡禎(Yi-Jhen Liu) 查詢紙本館藏

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統計研究所

論文名稱

臺灣地區分簇主震及其最大餘震之統計分析

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至系統瀏覽論文 (2025-8-1以後開放)

摘要(中)

強烈的地震經常給人類帶來重大的損失與災難，而在之後出現的大餘震可能進一步弱化已經受損的建築結構。為降低主震後的救災風險，即時評估餘震，特別是最大餘震的風險是一項至關重要的研究。本文的資料來源為臺灣中央氣象署的地震與地球物理資料管理系統之完整地震目錄(https://gdms.cwa.gov.tw/catalogDownload.php)。研究中的地震為發生在臺灣地區(東經118°至126°，北緯20°至26°)於1994年至2023年間，規模在3.0以上、震源深度在70公里以內的所有淺層地震。首先利用經驗公式進行分簇研究，選出規模超過5.0的主震，然後找出對應的最大規模餘震。本文探索主震規模的分配，以及主震間隔時間的分配。此外根據關聯結構建立最大餘震與其主震的規模差距、時間差距和距離差距的聯合分布。最後建立未來主震可能的規模及時間，以及當主震發生後，對應最大規模餘震的可能規模、時間及震央之預測方法，並且加以統計評估之。

摘要(英)

Strong earthquakes usually bring up significant losses and disasters to humanbeing, and large aftershocks occurred shortly after the major earthquake may further weaken the damaged structures. To carry out a rescue safely, it is crucial to assess the real-time risk of large aftershocks. In this study, we obtain the earthquake catalog from the Taiwan Seismological and Geophysical Data Management System (GDMS，https://gdms.cwa.gov.tw/
oindent
catalogDownload.php). Of particular interest are earthquakes with magnitude of 3.0 or higher and hypocentral depth within 70 kilometers that occurred between 1994 and 2023 in the Taiwan region (from 118°E to 126°E, 20°N to 26°N). An empiried rule-based declustering method is applied to find main shocks with magnitude 5.0 or greater, and hence the associated largest aftershocks. The distribution of the magnitude of mainshocks, and that of the inter-occurrence time between successive main shocks are investigated. Moreover, the copula-based joint distribution of the differences in magnitude, time, and distance between the mainshock and the associated largest aftershock is studied. Finally, we conducted and evaluated different methods for forecasting the possible magnitude and time of the next mainshock, as well as after the current main shock, the possible magnitude, time, and epicenter of the largest aftershock.

關鍵字(中)

★ 指數分配
★ 伽瑪分配
★ 韋伯分配
★ 聯合機率密度函數
★ 相關性分析
★ 關聯結構

關鍵字(英)

★ Exponential distribution
★ Gamma distribution
★ Weibull distribution
★ Joint probability density function
★ Correlation analysis
★ Copula

論文目次

摘要 i
Abstract ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vi
表目錄 vii
第一章研究動機與目的 1
第二章文獻回顧 3
2.1 常用右偏機率分配 3
2.2 地震規模頻率 5
2.3 統計檢定方法 8
2.4 地震分簇及相關分析 12
2.5 關聯結構函數 15
2.6 盒鬚圖 17
第三章主震之統計分析 18
3.1 地震分簇方法 18
3.2 主震規模及間隔時間之分析 22
3.2.1 主震規模分配 22
3.2.2 主震間隔時間分析 25
3.3 主震規模及間隔時間之預測 27
第四章最大餘震之統計分析 30
4.1 最大餘震規模、時間及震央之研究 30
4.2 震源機制與地區之影響 37
4.3 最大餘震規模、時間及震央之預測 41
第五章結論 43
參考文獻 44
附錄 1994-2023分簇主震與其最大餘震表 48

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指導教授

陳玉英(Yuh-Ing Chen)

審核日期

2024-7-23

推文