Impact of climate change on runoff in the Gilgel Abbay watershed, the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

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Title:	Impact of climate change on runoff in the Gilgel Abbay watershed, the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
Authors:	李明旭;Ayele, Hailu;Li, Ming-Hsu;Tung, Ching-Pin;Liu, Tzu-Ming
Contributors:	地球科學學院水文與海洋科學研究所
Keywords:	basins;Climate change;climate models;dry season;Ethiopia;floods;hydrologic models;Hydrology;irrigation water;lakes;Precipitation;Rivers;Runoff;Seasons;temperature;Water shortages;Watersheds;wet season
Date:	2016-09-03
Issue Date:	2026-04-23 11:08:01 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	MDPI Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute;Basel: MDPI AG
Abstract:	摘要： Hydrological assessment is critical to the successful implementation of adaption measures. In this study, projections of seven global circulation models (GCMs) associated with high and medium–low Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5) for the period 2021–2040 and 2081–2100 were adopted to assess changes on runoffs in the Gilgel Abbay watershed, the upper Blue Nile basin. A weather generator was employed to generate daily temperature and precipitation to drive a hydrological model for impact assessment. Despite the projected magnitude of changes varied among different GCMs and RCPs, increasing runoffs in wet-season and decreasing in dry-season are observed in both periods, mainly attributed to the change in projected precipitation. Such changes are profound in cases of RCP 8.5 with respect to those of RCP 4.5 and in cases of 2081–2100 with respect to those of 2021–2040. Although the increasing runoffs would provide greater inflow to Lake Tana, the increase of precipitation in wet-season would imply a higher possibility of flash floods. On the other hand, decrease runoffs in dry-season further intensify existing shortage of irrigation water demand. These changes will have deleterious consequences on the economic wellbeing of the country and require successful implementation of adaption measures to reduce vulnerability. 出版者： Basel: MDPI AG 出版日期： 2016-09-03 出處： Water (Basel), 2016-09, Vol.8 (9), p.380-380 資源來源： Publicly available content database 版權： Copyright MDPI AG 2016 識別號： ISSN: 2073-4441 識別號： EISSN: 2073-4441 識別號： DOI: 10.3390/w8090380
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Hydrological and Oceanic Sciences] journal & Dissertation

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