整合性地震風險評估系統內推測事件資料庫之建置與靈敏度分析

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Title:	整合性地震風險評估系統內推測事件資料庫之建置與靈敏度分析
Authors:	王教帆;Chiao-fan Wang
Contributors:	土木工程研究所
Keywords:	加速度超越機率曲線;推測事件資料庫;地震危害度分析;seismic hazard analysis;stochastic events database;ground motions curves with probability of exceed
Date:	2009-01-09
Issue Date:	2009-09-18 17:24:34 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學圖書館
Abstract:	台灣位處於環太平洋地震帶，島內地震頻繁，為世界上發生有感地震最頻繁地區之一，由於地震發生具有高度的不確定性以及具有瞬間造成巨大災害的能力，南投集集大地震發生後，引起政府與社會大眾對於災害預防和地震風險管理的高度重視，因此本研究希望藉由地震風險評估來預測未來地震可能帶來的衝擊。本文將建置一個推測事件資料庫，資料庫內包含了對於台灣地區產生重大地震災害之地震事件資料，在利用此資料庫進行地震危害度分析，模擬台灣地區在475年回歸週期下，各地的最大地表加速度，以及台灣重要都市50年內最大地表加速度超越機率曲線圖。最後與其他學者之研究進行分析比較，確定本研究所建置之推測事件資料庫之可行性，並以本文所建置之推測事件資料庫，進行整合性地震風險評估系統的開發以及系統內資料庫之更新。 This study is present the process of construct a stochastic event database which is used to analyze seismic hazard. In the end of this study it hopes to predict the damage of earthquake in future by seismic hazard assessment. In order to construct a database in this thesis it uses GIS program to separate occurrence rate in area source and considers characteristic earthquake model in line source. After the process of construction the database is include all of the earthquake events in Taiwan which cause huge damage. Finally using this database to construct a contour of peak ground motions acceleration in Taiwan with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years and seismic hazard curves for big cities in Taiwan by seismic hazard analysis. In this thesis it also compares with other studies and confirms the probability of database.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Civil Engineering] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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