區域降雨時空分布變遷特性; Regional Temporal-Spatial Rainfall Distribution Under the Impact of Possible Climate Change

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题名:	區域降雨時空分布變遷特性;Regional Temporal-Spatial Rainfall Distribution Under the Impact of Possible Climate Change
作者:	蕭正凱;Cheng-kai Hsiao
贡献者:	土木工程研究所
关键词:	克利金;頻率分析;Frequency analysis;Kriging
日期:	2009-07-06
上传时间:	2009-09-18 17:27:17 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學圖書館
摘要:	近年來由於氣候變遷影響使得各地氣候都產生了變異，其中影響最大的就是溫度和降雨量，而本研究將討論受到氣候變遷衝擊後，探討區域降雨時空分布趨勢。本研究針對桃園縣做兩個部份探討，一是雨量站點做頻率分析並繪製民國66-85年及民國86-95年兩時期之IDF curve，比較不同位置之雨量站所計算兩時期之IDF curve的差異，另一部份為探討區域的年總降雨量分布變化，利用Kriging推估桃園縣自民國66-95年之每年總降雨量分析降雨量深度變化，又利用無因次化方式觀察每年降雨強弱分布狀況，以瞭解區域降雨時空變化之趨勢。分析結果顯示，頻率分析部份，受到氣候變遷影響，桃園縣山區容易產生極端降雨事件且暴雨量越來越大，反觀台地部份極端降雨事件暴雨量則是不變或變小；區域分析部份，等雨量線與無因次化等值線皆顯示沿海的雨量線漸漸往內陸山區移動，利用Mann-Kendall趨勢檢定顯示山海比值之T=2.943，表示山海比值為增加的趨勢，由此可知近年來降雨量往山區集中，且降雨分布趨勢為台地雨量漸減山區雨量漸增的情況。 This study focuses on the temporal-spatial rainfall distribution under the impact of possible climate change. Firstly, the rainfall frequency for each of the rain gauge stations was analyzed. This was done by drawing the IDF curve for the periods of 1977-1996 and for the period of 1997-2006 and by comparing to the difference of IDF curve between two periods for each of the rain gauge stations. Secondly, the change of local annual rainfall distribution was identified. The change of annual rainfall depth since 1977 to 2006 in Taoyuan area by Kriging method was estimated. The dimensionless rainfall patterns, both in temporal and spatial, were analyzed. The result shows that the extreme rainfall events occur more frequently in the mountain area of Taoyuan, with higher rainfall associate with. However, the extreme rainfall in tableland area keeps constant or even decreases. The dimensionless isohyets along the coast move toward inland and the isohyets in the mountain indicate larger and denser rainfall. The result indicates that the rainfall is concentrated in mountain area. It suggests that less rainfall in the tableland and larger rainfall in the mountain may form the future weather pattern in this region.
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