房地產景氣自2004年逐步翻昇後，雖常見公有土地以天價標售或房價創新高之訊息，但檢視市場之推案量與銷售率，目前已見回歸平靜之趨勢。對建築投資業者而言，如何於錯縱紛紜之消息面中取得正確訊息，以做為投資推案之決策參考，實屬攸關生計之關鍵課題。 本研究乃針對臺北市預售住宅，探討影響其銷售率之主要因素。本研究經專家訪談與腦力激盪後，以AHP層級分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process)將影響預售住宅之因素初步整理為四階層之架構。經專家問卷調查量化各因素之權重後，將整體因素架構簡化為三階層共十三個主要因素，其中以“交通條件”與“區域環境”兩因素權重皆佔百分之二十二為最重要，而“價格”因素之權重不到百分之五，並未如預期之重要。本研究並參考初步架構中第四階層之因素，藉以建立第三階層因素之評分標準，以利於預售住宅案整體銷售率之評估。 本研究所建立之影響因素與評估架構，經六件實際案例之測試後，更進一步以迴歸分析建立銷售率之推估模型，可用來推估住宅預售案可完全銷售之期間，或預估該案為“將嚴重滯銷”之不利情況。本研究之成果，可作為建築投資業是否進行推案之參考。 The market of real estate has been recovering since 2004. There were cases that public assets or housing property were sold at record-high prices. However, the real estate market is becoming relatively stable recently. It is always a crucial issue for housing developers to make right judgments from the mixed environment to maintain their competitiveness or survival. This research aims at investigating the major factors that affecting preselling rates of housing projects invested by the developers in Taipei. Indepth interviews with experts and brain-storming seminars were conducted to obtain a set of preliminary factors. These factors were then structured into four layers by the method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Thirteen factors were finally identified and structured into three layers after a questionnaire survey of domain experts. It was found that “Traffic conditions” and “Zoning environment” were the most important two factors both weighted twenty-two percent. The “Pricing” factor, weighted less than five percent, was a surprising result. This research then clearly defined evaluation criteria for the thirteen factors to complete the evaluation mechanism. Finally, six real housing projects were tested against the evaluation mechanism to create a regression model. This model is able to predict the duration required for “sold-out” or to indicate that the project is extremely infeasible. Results of this research are deemed to be useful references for the housing developers in determining their marketing strategies.
