行人細胞自動機與設施防災規劃;Facility Evacuation Planning Using Cellular Automation

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題名:	行人細胞自動機與設施防災規劃;Facility Evacuation Planning Using Cellular Automation
作者:	朱致遠
貢獻者:	土木工程學系
關鍵詞:	細胞自動機;設施規劃;行人疏散;模擬;系統選擇;災害防治;Cellular Automation;Facility Design;Simulation;Pedestrian Evacuation;System Selection;Hazard Mitigation;土木水利工程類
日期:	2010-07-01
上傳時間:	2010-06-10 17:29:26 (UTC+8)
出版者:	行政院國家科學委員會
摘要:	建築物之防災設計係依照規格性規範(如：建築技術規則)，其規定包括通道寬度、開口寬度、避難方向…等項目，但建築物內部之細部空間配置與動線安排等並未加以限制，因此，建物之防災相關功能缺乏依據亦不易評估，本計畫擬應用電腦模擬進行土木設施之防災規劃分析，電腦模擬可有效考量各類建物之細部差異及行人移動之隨機性，對不同設施規劃方案進行更精確的防災分析。本計畫的行人模擬將採用細胞自動機，此方法具有高效率的特點，由於行人間的互動經過適度簡化，適合大規模疏散以及高次數的模擬，本計畫將結合三維動畫展示模擬過程，有助於對疏散過程的瞭解甚有助益。本計畫並將改進以往行人模式多進行理論分析而較缺乏驗證，先以巨觀的角度進行密度、流量、以及速度的校估，未來將試圖以微觀的角度驗證行人模式。在設施規劃上，本計畫採用「系統選擇」相關的統計分析理論，可依照事先決定的正確機率，以最小的模擬次數選擇最佳系統(設計方案)，更甚者，最佳方案與其他方案之間的差距亦可求得。本計畫之成果可分析當土木設施發生災變時，人員可能逃生的動線及疏散時間，藉此改進各項設施設計及逃生路線規劃，也可在新的防災作業程序發布時進行模擬，以評估其效率，該方法將提供較現有的簡單數學公式或經驗公式更細部的參考資訊。本計畫現階段已初步完成行人模擬模式及實例分析，結果顯示文獻中的行人移動行為可被有效重現且可用於分析設施疏散設計，後續工作將包括完整文獻回顧，改良行人模擬模式，配合三維動畫及建物模型以協助使用者瞭解模擬過程，並結合最佳化方法以提供一完整的電腦輔助設施防災規畫決策系統，最後將以範例驗證本模式使用於設施防災規劃之能力。New constructions must comply with building codes that regulate specifications such as the minimum number of exits and stairways given the characteristics of a facility (e.g. floor area or purposes). However, the performance measures of hazard mitigation are not required in the regulations. Since the building codes alone are insufficient to provide information regarding a facility’s performance of hazard mitigation, this project proposes to develop a computer simulation framework for facility evacuation design. A cellular automation (CA) model of pedestrian movements with 3D visualization will be implemented for facility planning. The CA methodology is efficient for large-scale and repeated simulations and describes pedestrian behaviors adequately. Different from the previous studies that focus on the behavior theories and ignore model calibration, this paper calibrates the model with data at macroscopic level (flow, density, and speed) first and will extend the calibration to the microscopic level. The calibrated pedestrian model will be useful for optimal facility design because it reflects the complicated interactions between pedestrians and the facility. After candidate facility designs are evaluated with the pedestrian models, a two-stage procedure is adopted for the statistical selection of the alternatives. As result, the best design can be selected with a pre-determined probability of correct selection and targeted difference between the best and the second best systems. Moreover, required numbers of repetitions are calculated and conducted to avoid incorrect selection or unnecessary repetitions. Therefore, the procedure proposed is an effective and efficient tool for facility design. The project has implemented the computer programs for pedestrian dynamics and conducted a preliminary numerical example. The results show that the proposed framework reproduces the pedestrian behaviors adequately and can be used to analyze the evacuation designs of facilities. The project plans to make a complete literature review for the related works and further improve the pedestrian models. 3-D animation will be incorporated to help the understanding of the users. The main focus of the remaining work would be the application of optimization techniques on the simulation models in order to support the decision-making for evacuation design. Finally, numerical examples will be conducted to validate the proposed framework for facility planning. 研究期間 : 9808 ~ 9907
關聯:	財團法人國家實驗研究院科技政策研究與資訊中心
顯示於類別:	[土木工程學系 ] 研究計畫

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