本計畫之目標為探討如何掌握及利用暖季(5-10月)季內多重尺度擾動特徵以展望第二周之後的極端天氣發生趨勢。主要工作包括四項：一是與子計畫分工合作，研究暖季(5-10月)季內多重尺度波動特徵與相關的機制；二是參與drift stone計畫，利用THORPEX Pacific-Asian Regional Campaign (PARC)【by David Parsons; and Experiment Design Overview for THORPEX】的特別資料，對觀測期間的多重尺度季內震盪進行個案分析；三是應用前兩項工作成果，提供與相關子計劃，探討氣候模式對於暖季短期氣候變化與氣旋波、颱風活動的預報能力；最後是綜合全球氣候模式、區域氣候模式、統計預報模式預報，建立暖季短期氣候變化與伴隨的極端天氣（颱風）預報技術，針對2003、2004年七、八、九月進行周至月颱風機率預報實驗。The objective of the proposal is to investigate how best we can understand and utilize the dominant features of the multiscale disturbances in order to predict submonthly activities of extreme weather events (like TC). The proposed tasks include: 1) to understand relevant processes maintaining the dominant wave disturbances; 2) to analyze the special data for the IOP phase of the THORPEX Pacific-Asian Regional Campaign (PARC) [by David Parsons; and Experiment Design Overview for THORPEX] to perform a detailed case study of the wave disturbances to further investigate possible scale interaction processes; 3) to investigate the performance of global climate prediction models (CWB and JMA) in predicting warm-season submonthly variability and associated TD-type waves and tropical cyclones (TC), their mutual influences; 4) to combine the prediction results from the global model, regional model, and statistical model to develop a prediction system for the warm-season submonthly variability and associated TCs, and apply it to perform an experimental forecast for the year 2003 and 2004. 研究期間 : 9808 ~ 9907
