| 摘要: | 環境的快速變遷，在新世紀來臨的同時，企業經營所面臨的挑戰及風險，卻未因為科技的發達而減少，反而因為科技縮短了人與人之間的距離，造成企業經營環境愈趨於複雜化。企業必須面臨恐怖活動、金融海嘯、毒奶事件的人禍外，還要面臨各種難以預期的天災及無可預期的新挑戰，營運風險管理便成為企業持續營運管理(BCM)目標的首要工作。 藉由文獻及內外部環境分析工具，彙整對企業營運持續可能造成衝擊的因素，並依照作業流程逐步引導評估小組完成分析，以避免遺漏關鍵衝擊因素與關鍵流程，並確保評估内容的完整性。營運衝擊分析應考慮正常景氣循環、景氣蕭條及非預期性產能大幅增加的可能等三種情境，依各別情境探討最大可接受中斷時間(MTPD)及復原時間(RTO)，才可依分析結果建立完整的復原計畫。 風險評估採用風險矩陣評估模式，以澳洲/紐西蘭持續營運標準HB 221所提供的嚴重度評估分級並分為財務面及非財務面影響，以辨識出營運、財務、操作及災害四個面向潛在的重大風險。在評估出重大風險的20項內容中，屬於營運及財務風險有17項，持續營運管理中以管理面風險為主要風險。 受金融海嘯的衝擊，廠商以壓低庫存因應，主要為了保有現金週轉，但也造成貨原供應期拉長及供應不及因應急單效應的衝突現像。研究過程中亦發現供應鏈關係日益複雜及緊密，未來在供應鏈管理除了品質、交貨期外還應包括安全衛生管理績效、經營績效及現金流量管理的能力，以避免因供應商營運中斷而造成自身營運受到衝擊。 With the rapidly changing business environment and arriving of the new millennium, challenges and risks facing enterprises, despite technological advances, become much more complicated. Enterprises have to face not only human induced disasters such as terrorist attacks, financial crises, but also natural disasters and other unexpected events. Consequently, business continuity management, BCM, has been embraced by many business entities. With available analysis tools, an enterprise can consider all factors having possible impact on BCM. With detailed work procedures to guide the evaluation teams completing the step-by-step analysis, omission of impact of key factors and processes can be prevented, which helps to ensure the integrity of the assessment. According to this study, business impact analysis, BIA, should consider three possible situations such as including the normal business cycle, economic recession and the possibility of non-expected surge in production capacity. BIA should be conducted for all situations to explore the maximum tolerable period of disruption, MTPD, and the recovery time objective, RTO, and to establish the comprehensive recovery program accordingly. In this study, risk assessment is conducted utilizing the risk matrix model of the Australia / New Zealand HB 221:2004 Business Continuity Managrment Standard. Severity is classified into financial and non-financial impact, which includes business management, finance, operations, and disaster. The significant risk contains 20 items within which 17 items are considered to be associated with management and finance, and risk management is the main focus of BCM. With the unexpected occurrence of the financial crises, manufacturers tend to reduce inventories to prevent potential losses. Maintaining cash flow is the primary objective it, but it also prolongs the supply period and the conflicting phenomenon of suppliers’ response time in a sudden surge of demands. This research predicts more complex relationships and heavy reliance among a company’s supply chain members. For improved supply chain management, in addition to quality and delivery time, it should also include the suppliers’ capability in safety and health management, overall management performance and cash flow management to avoid all potential impacts. |
