本研究計劃主要在於研究中央氣象局全球模式預報場之系統性誤差，並校驗模式預報之結果，以供中央氣象局改進預報模式之參考。 上一年度計畫首先將中央氣象局全球預報系統1995年至1999年200hPa與850hPa的預報風場分解成旋轉分量與輻散分量，分別以流函數及速度位代表。其次將此二環流分為年平均、年循環及30-60天瞬變擾動分量，之後分別就各時間分量從事分析風場、環流及行星波等系統誤差之基本特徵，以了解模式對預報風場的掌握情形。 本年度計劃將針對中央氣象局全球預報系統1995年至1999年200hPa與850hPa的預報高度場和溫度場，分別就年平均、年循環及30-60天瞬變擾動分量，從事模式系統性誤差分析，並與上一年度所分析環流場做比較分析。進而就以冬季大陸高壓出海個案詳加分析其特性，並探討模式預報結果之系統性誤差。 The characteristics of systematic errors in the CWB Global forecast model during 1995 and 1999 is examined in this proposed study. The CWB global forecast wind fields at 200 hPa and 850 hPa are used to explore both the rotational and divergent circulations systematic errors associated with the annual mean, annual cycle and intraseasonal low frequency variations. It is conceivable that the latent heat released by the active cumulus convection, which is generally associated with cyclonic low or trough in the lower troposphere, will amplify the upper level thermal field. Thus, 850 hPa height and 200 hPa temperature are selected to substantiate this relationship with global circulation in the forecast errors. Furthermore, a preliminary investigation of cold surges during the northern winter monsoon seasons is offered. 研究期間：9002 ~ 9012
