本委託計畫結合國內學者就下列項目: 統計預報模式的建置(2004,2005) ，大氣海洋偶合模式的發展(2004, 2005)與操作(2006)，長期氣候預測之水資源與水文應用，提出相應研究項目。其中統計預報模式的建置將根據新發展的GSVD、POP及其他有關方法分析ERA-40資料內季內至年際震盪之時空分布特徵，並據以發展東亞及台灣區域，月至季的統計氣候預報模式。大氣海洋耦合模式的發展將利用氣象局發展的海洋模式(Intermediate Ocean model及Princeton Ocean Model)與大氣模式(第一年以MM5為主，之後以WRF為主) 結合。模式的發展以改進其中降水過程與海氣及陸氣邊界層的水氣與能量交換過程為主，以改進耦合模式對水文循環的預報能力。水資源與水文應用研究項目，將以1) 長期氣候預測統計性降尺度方法；2) 農業灌溉用水推估；3) 河川流量預測 等三個研究重點為主軸，建立農業灌溉用水模組與河川流量模組，整合農業灌溉用水與河川流量預測，建立水資源管理系統本委託計畫將經由資料分析及大氣海洋偶合模式探討亞洲太平洋地區海氣交互作用與東亞季風變異機制，加強吾人對於東亞短期氣候變異的了解，研發相輔與前瞻性的預報技術。並進而透過水資源與水文應用技術發展，進行技術移轉。計畫的執行將為中央氣象局培育四期經建計畫所需研發人才。 Development of climate prediction-hydrological applications Abstract In response to the research and application plan of the climate prediction program being developed by Central Weather Bureau, we propose this project as part of the University Cooperative Program in Climate Research (UCPCR) being jointly developed by several domestic universities and the CWB. The proposed project will accomplish two objectives: the development of statistical and dynamic ocean-atmosphere prediction models for short-term climate variability (ENSO, monsoon, and ISO) in East Asia ？HV Pacific, and the application of the climate forecast information to water resources and hydrology. The statistical model will be developed based on an analysis of ERA-40 and ancillary data using newly developed statistical methods (GSVD, POP). The dynamical models will be developed based on ocean models being developed by the CWB climate program (IOM and POM), an AGCM, and a regional atmospheric model (MM5 in the first year and WRF later). The major model development efforts will be on the improvement of air-sea exchanges and hydrologic cycles in the dynamic models. The climate prediction will be applied to improve the accuracy of estimating agricultural water demand and stream water supply that will be integrated to develop warning systems of agricultural and hydrology drought for better decision-making in water resources management. The accomplishment of this proposed project is expect to contribute to the capability of CWB？H？Hs climate prediction program. The proposed tasks will also bridge climate and hydrology communities so the climate information will be considered more seriously by governmental agencies and decision makers. 研究期間：9303 ~ 9312
