本研究利用地震波形逆推所得之錯動量分佈計算過去十年台灣中、大型地震造成之庫倫應力轉移情形，並且將此結果與其餘震分佈相比較，無論餘震是否位處於與主震相同之段層面上，大部分之餘震多座落於主震造成應力上升之處。本研究亦考慮以經驗公式推求之錯動模型以期達到縮短計算時間進而達到預報餘震之成效，以此模型計算之應力轉移與餘震分佈議程現正相關之情形，亦即餘震多座落於應力上升之處，應力下降之處餘震相對稀少。故一旦獲得地震之震源參數、震源機制，便可估計該地震造成應力轉移之情形、估計餘震可能發生位置而達到餘震預警之功效。 Spatial heterogeneous slip dislocation models from seismic waveform inversions of several moderate to large earthquakes in the past decade in the Taiwan area are used to calculate stress transfer conditions associated with aftershock distributions. Toward the possibility of forecasting aftershock distributions from stress changes due to the mainshock, we considered homogeneous fault models on the basis of earthquake scaling law to produce rapid stress change calculations. Stress changes from homogeneous and heterogeneous fault models show similar patterns. They both show good correlation with aftershock distributions, even for the complex fault rupture of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake. Our results, thus, support the possibility of forecasting aftershock distributions using mainshock stress changes. Once the location, magnitude and focal mechanism of an earthquake become available, stress change calculations can be carried out to forecast aftershock distribution for earthquake hazard mitigation. 研究期間：9401 ~ 9412
