| 摘要: | 水資源永續發展必須符合水資源利用之整體效益，其中利用區域化經營管理是達到目標的方法之一。本論文進行方法論之研究，主要藉由區域化水資源經營管理觀念，發展出一套水資源供需指標之系統與程序，理論中以區域化定位水資源之運用，主要是因為台灣地區各地因地形、氣候、人文等因素，對於水資源之需求各有所不同。其中並導入供需平衡之觀念，希望管理階層與使用者，能在水資源匱乏時得到最好之運用。 本研究首先以各用水區域，作為供需指標發佈標準區域，並以苗中、雲彰及嘉南地區為例，以水文週期定義出水文乾旱年。由於雨量是一切供水的來源，所以對於乾旱發生與否，降雨多寡佔著舉足輕重的位置，而且上下游降雨也有不同之利用方式，上游之降雨可以提供水庫蓄水，下游降雨則可提供農田及時供水，尤其在乾旱時期，下游降雨益形重要，所以本論文以降雨量作為乾旱指標判斷因子。對於缺水指標，除了以降雨量作為缺水情況之預警系統外，最能反應缺水狀況之主要因子為水庫蓄水量、河川流量和地下水存量等，所以要分析水資源供應狀況必須從這些方面著手。由於地下水位變動不大，反應乾旱狀況也是在乾旱之後期，所以本研究在水資源供應面方面，主要考量降雨、河川流量及水庫蓄水量，以期能掌握水資源供應狀況。之後將這些因子標準常態化後，加權後求得缺水指標。而水資源供需指標，主要應用供需平衡之觀念，考量旬可供水量與旬需水量，比較此兩因子之關係而得供需指標。本論文同時也將乾溼季之機率分布分別求出，再對上下游提供下旬是否持續乾旱之預測，其中下游部份並可預估灌溉需水量多寡。結果顯示，本研究所使用之各指標均能反應出實際狀況。 Sustainable development of water resources must conform to the whole benefit of the resources used. An important approach to this target is making use of regional operation and management. This study developed a system indexes, namely drought index, shortage index and sufficient index, by means of the concept of regional operation and management. Due to the factors of topography, weather and human culture, the demand of water resources is different among every region in Taiwan. The sufficient index, which base on the concept of maintaining the balance of supply and demand, provides a better management insight when water resources are in deficit. Furthermore, this study proposed the sufficient index of water resources for the water demand areas on Central and Southern Taiwan to predict the occurrence of a possible drought. Statistical analysis was conducted to identify a hydrologic drought year. In Taiwan, water supply mainly depends on rainfall. However, the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is highly irregular. There are different kinds of exploitation for rainfall between upstream and downstream. Rainfall, which is the principal referring factor of the drought index in this study, is kept in the reservoirs in upstream and promptly irrigates the corps especially in drought period in downstream. Besides rainfall, the factors, which response to the shortage situation, are reservoir storage, flow rate and groundwater. Due to the fact that the groundwater level makes only small alteration, only reservoir storage, flow rate and rainfall were concerned in the supply of water resources. These three factors are standardized and weighted to estimate shortage index. The sufficient index is mainly concerned about the concept of the balance between water supply and water demand. The probability of drought, which forecasts whether drought continues or not in upstream area and downstream area, in wet and dry spell is also calculated in this study. The results show that the index system proposed in this study can quantify the shortage of water and the deficit level of drought. |
