台灣區域震源潛勢地震發生機率之評估與分析 ; Estimation and Analysis of The Potential Earthquake Probabilities in Taiwan

NCUIR > College of Earth Sciences > Graduate Institute of Geophysics > Electronic Thesis & Dissertation > Item 987654321/44421

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Title:	台灣區域震源潛勢地震發生機率之評估與分析;Estimation and Analysis of The Potential Earthquake Probabilities in Taiwan
Authors:	葉宏融;Hung-jung Yeh
Contributors:	地球物理研究所
Keywords:	微分區;再現週期;機率模型;潛勢地震發生機率;probability model;Potential Earthquake Probabilities;micro grid
Date:	2010-07-26
Issue Date:	2010-12-09 10:51:53 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	國立中央大學
Abstract:	台灣位於歐亞板塊及菲律賓海板塊間的弧陸碰撞帶上，由於板塊間的碰撞擠壓作用，使得台灣地震活動相當頻繁，在1999年9月21日集集地震後，由於造成重大的損失及傷亡，使得國內各界對於地震預測相關研究產生高度重視，但由於對地震發生機制還未徹底了解，導致地震準確預測之研究困難度極高，因此在進行地震預測研究同時，也試著以地震潛勢發生機率作為未來地震防災規劃參考，並以相關統計方法評估並分析台灣區域震源潛勢地震發生機率，以此方法得到地震災害潛勢之結果，並利用其結果作為長期地震災害評估所使用。本研究之目的為藉由中央氣象局之地震目錄，利用台灣電力公司核電廠耐震安全評估所使用震源分區「Ｄ」之淺層分區，並假設地震的發生遵循柏松過程，且對地震目錄去除各主震之餘震，經由統計分析以得到地震特性參數，以此建立地震機率模型，作為評估台灣地區未來地震發生機率的依據，其主要概念是對某特定地區內的地震做統計分析，並以再現週期建立各區域的機率模型，並考慮地震之靜待期，計算在未來10年至50年內可能發生地震之機率。而對於微分區潛勢地震發生機率，則是將分區方式改成以較小網格取代震源分區，並以網格中心搜尋適當範圍內之地震紀錄來計算a值，而震源分區所計算之b值可代表該分區之地震特性，所以則以網格所處區域震源分區之b值代替，並利用區域震源潛勢地震發生機率評估之方法，計算未來10、20、 50年之潛勢地震發生機率。在本研究中，對於分區方法雖提出區域震源分區及微分區網格，但對於微分區網格中與地震特性相關之b值，還是使用震源分區所計算出的b值，在未來若能有更完整的微分區網格之地震目錄，則可使用微分區網格搜尋範圍內之地震目錄所計算之b 值，即能更顯現出較能符合網格及較高可信度的潛勢地震發生機率值。目前台灣的地震目錄資料仍有限，大規模地震資料較為缺乏，在未來隨著時間，而地震紀錄增加後，重新計算潛勢地震發生機率值後，可使結果更為可信。Taiwan is located on the boundary between Eurasia Plate and Philippines Sea Plate and earthquakes occur frequently. Many disasters and casualties caused by the earthquake, like Chi-Chi earthquake, in September 21, 1999. For this reason, studying in earthquake is important to Taiwan. Though earthquake forecast hasnʼt developed completely today, we still need to estimate the potential of earthquake and prevent disasters first. ! The purpose of this study is to use the earthquake catalog of the Central Weather Bureau. Assuming the occurrence of earthquakes follows by the Poisson process, and removing aftershocks of the earthquake catalog. Through statistical analysis to obtain the seismic parameters, to build earthquake probability models as assessing the earthquake in the future in Taiwan based on probability.The major concept is that for the statistical analysis in some particular area, we build the probability midel in each area by mean of earthquake space time, taking elapse time of the earthquake into consideration and calculating the probabilities of earthquakes in 10 to 50 years. For the grid in which micro Region was the source area of the region instead of b value and potential use of regional earthquake source probability assessment method to calculate the incidence of potential earthquakes in next 10,20,50 years. ! In this study, the b value of the micro grid still use the result of regional epicenter. In the future, if there is more complete grid of the micro zone earthquake catalog, you can use the micro area network cells within the scope of the earthquake catalog search computed b values, which plays a more than able to meet the high reliability of the grid and the potential of earthquake probabilities. As time passes in future, after increasing the seismic record, the result of re-calculation of potential earthquake probability will be more reliable.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Geophysics] Electronic Thesis & Dissertation

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