摘 要 為求瞭解公共建設專案投標期與履約施工期間之短期財務需求，並發展一套容易理解、能被靈活應用的專案現金管理與控制模型，提供營造業承包商實務應用於專案現金管理與控制之參考，以提升其營運資金管理效能(尤其是現金管理部份)，從而控管資金成本以增加營運利益，本研究以公共建設專案作為研究標的，經由收集42筆公共建設標案之估驗計價財務資料(包括20筆捷運工程標案、14筆公路建設標案及8筆公共建築標案)進行相關研討。 首先，應用Takagi-Sugeno模糊理論建立大型專案之S-curve迴歸模型，得出一六階多項式S曲線模型，繼而應用現金週期概念，推估分析專案履約執行時之現金流量圖形，以瞭解其執行過程中之短期財務需求，增進對現金管理問題的瞭解，再經由修訂Miller-Orr現金管理模型，發展出一套彈性雙限目標現金餘額模型，作為業界實務應用及後續研究之參考。 模型應用分析具備簡易靈活特性，所有計算可於試算表軟體(如EXCEL)中完成，承包商實務應用時可先以S曲線模型預覽專案執行前之現金分布與需求數量，工程進行中再以實際發生之專案現金流量數據進行更新與修正，並依據模型現金預測結果預做資金調度之準備。 Abstract In contracting business, construction firms are generally more concerned with short-term financial strategies than long-term ones. Working capital management is the central issue of all short-term financial concerns. More importantly, cash management is ultimate goal for achieving high liquidity and profitability. This study presented the cash portion of working capital management by using the concept of target cash balance and developed a practical model for construction firms in Taiwan for rationalizing the amount of cash and current assets which should be possessed in any point of duration. Because the S-curve has unique merits to represent the relationship between project duration and complete progress in practical usage of construction management, based on the technique of Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model, a six orders multinomial fuzzy S-curve regression is hereby constructed in this study. The model developed by Miller and Orr is introduced here for understanding the issues involved. According to the project cash flow and progress payment records of example projects, this model are demonstrated here. All the calculations can be finished in the spreadsheet software (such as EXCEL) and tentative conclusions concerning the model are given.
