評估?網型太陽光電電廠在宏都拉斯的可行性; Pre-feasibility assessment of a grid-connected hotovoltaic power plant in Honduras

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题名:	評估?網型太陽光電電廠在宏都拉斯的可行性;Pre-feasibility assessment of a grid-connected hotovoltaic power plant in Honduras
作者:	艾亞傑;Eduardo Enrique Arias
贡献者:	國際環境永續發展碩士在職專班國際專班
关键词:	宏都拉斯;太陽能;RETSreen;太陽光電;可行性評估;Honduras;Solar Energy;RETSreen;Feasibility Assessment;Photovoltaic
日期:	2011-07-04
上传时间:	2012-01-05 12:25:24 (UTC+8)
摘要:	本論文的目地在以技術、環境和經濟面向來評估在宏都拉斯設置併網型太陽光電（PV）電廠的可行性。本篇採用美國航空太空總署的地面氣象和太陽能計畫(SSE)和太陽能和風能資源評估計畫(SWERA)來蒐集在宏都拉斯的月平均每日總日照量和日照時數的數據。此日照資源可作為建議設置一座1.13 MW的併網型PV電廠的發電來源。建議安裝PV電廠地點為宏都拉斯內最佳太陽能潛力的區域（北緯13°18'，西經87°12'），此地區平均日照量為5.62 kWh/d/m2，平均日照時數為7.6 h/d。估計PV電廠需設置4,810個PV模組，佔地約0.96公頃。本文採用丸岡提出的方法（2008）來選擇目前市場最符合成本效益的PV模組。本文用RETScreen模擬軟體，透過發電量性能分析、財務分析和溫室氣體排放量分析，以評估PV電廠的可行性。分析結果顯示容量因子為23.5%的電廠的年發電量為2,329 MWh。此外本文也做了財務指標評估，包括內部報酬率（IRR）、靜態投資回收期（SPP）、淨現值（NPV）、效益費用比（B-C ratio）和能源生產成本（EPC）都指出在宏都拉斯發展PV電廠的有利條件。敏感度分析顯示電力輸出率是影響本計劃穫利能力最敏感的變數，為了讓本計劃具有相當投資吸引力，建議購回電價為US$ 0.242/kWh。從環境保護觀點來看，此PV電廠在宏都拉斯一年的發電量可減少1,855噸的CO2，相當於減少4,314桶原油的消耗量。 The goal of this thesis is to evaluate the pre-feasibility of a grid-connected PV power plant in Honduras, by considering the well-being of the technical, economical and environmental aspects of the project. This thesis utilizes monthly average daily global solar radiation and sunshine-hour data from NASA Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) through the Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment Programme (SWERA) in Honduras. Evaluation of PV systems as an electricity generation source for Honduras was assessed utilizing a proposed 1.13 MW grid-connected PV power plant. It is proposed to locate the PV power plant within the region with the best solar energy potential in Honduras (13°18' North and 87°12' West). This region has an average global solar radiation value of 5.62 kWh/day/m2, and average sunshine-hour value of 7.6 hours/day. It is estimated that the potential PV power plant would require 4,810 PV modules, covering an approximate area of 0.96 hectares. Methodology described in Maruoka (2008) is adopted in this study to select the most cost-effective PV module from those available on the market. The pre-feasibility assessment of the proposed PV power plant is evaluated using RETScreen simulation software, through the performance of an energy production analysis, financial analysis and GHG emissions analysis. Initial results showed an annual electricity generation of 2,329 MWh, with a capacity factor of 23.5%. Financial indicators calculated, such as internal rate of return, simple payback period, net present value, benefit-cost ratio and energy production cost, indicated favorable conditions for the development of a PV power plant in Honduras. The sensitivity analysis shows that electricity export rate is the most sensitive variable which affects the profitability of the project. A feed in tariff rate of US$ 0.242/kWh is recommended to make the project economically and financially attractive. From the environmental point of view, it was found that a minimum of 1,855 tons of CO2, equivalent to 4,314 barrels of not consumed crude oil, can be avoided annually in Honduras by commissioning of the proposed PV power plant.
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