由2011 日本大海嘯之經驗得知，地震與海嘯等天災之潛在規模往往超乎近代實測資料所能呈現之最大值，並且海嘯湧潮所蘊含之動力遠大於過往以靜力學理論設計之耐海嘯標準。因此本計畫將以地震學分析為基礎，以預期可能不被預期的地震海嘯(Expecting “unexpected＂ events)為主軸，進行地震潛勢評估及強地動與海嘯預估，以建立台灣地區最大海嘯災害情勢資料。本計畫將建構潛在侵台海嘯之海嘯源，並以數值模式模擬海嘯之運動情形。在侵台海嘯源之擬定部分，以收集台灣歷史地震與海嘯加以設定潛在毀滅性海嘯之海嘯源參數。其後進行高解析度二維與三維之海嘯數值模擬，以二維COMCOT 模式模擬海嘯於外海之生成、傳播、溯昇、與淹溢行為，再以三維3D VOF 海嘯動力模式模擬海嘯侵襲內陸後，對重要結構物設施所施以之海嘯力，以徹底了解結構物之安全性，以及必要之災防手段。Lessons learned from the 2011 Japan tsunami event. The potential moment magnitudes of earthquake and tsunami usually exceed the largest value recorded from the field measurement, and the dynamic energy stored in the tsunami bore is much larger than the standard extracted from the hydrostatic theory. To overcome these problems, we shall create potential largest tsunami scenarios based on the seismology analysis to expect the ‘unexpected’ events. In this project, we will construct the tsunami sources, which are destructive to Taiwan, and implement the numerical model to simulate the dynamic and kinematic of the tsunami. The tsunami scenarios are established based on the earthquake tsunami historical records and 2D and 3D high-resolution tsunami simulation will be performed. We use 2D COMCOT model to simulate the generation, propagation, runup, and inundation of the tsunami, and used 3D VOF dynamic model to simulate the impact force on the structures after inundation. The result is able to provide enough information on the safety of the structure, and inspect the strategy of hazard mitigation plan. 研究期間：10005 ~ 10107
