Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California

NCU Institutional Repository > 地球科學學院 > 地球物理研究所 > 期刊論文 > Item 987654321/50581

jsp.display-item.identifier=請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: http://ir.lib.ncu.edu.tw/handle/987654321/50581

题名:	Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California
作者:	Lee,YT;Turcotte,DL;Holliday,JR;Sachs,MK;Rundle,JB;Chen,CC;Tiampo,KF
贡献者:	地球物理研究所
关键词:	DYNAMICS;SYSTEMS
日期:	2011
上传时间:	2012-03-27 17:37:15 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學
摘要:	The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M >= 4.95 earthquakes in 0.1 degrees x 0.1 degrees cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M >= 4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts.
關聯:	PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
显示于类别:	[地球物理研究所] 期刊論文

文件中的档案:

档案	描述	大小	格式	浏览次数
index.html		0Kb	HTML	824	检视/开启

在NCUIR中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.

社群 sharing

数据加载中.....