ENSO事件是氣候中相當重要的現象之一，導因於海洋與大氣的交互作用。研究發現每隔2-7年，中、東太平洋大範圍海水異常增溫，使積雲對流異常增加。由於釋放到大氣中的潛熱位置改變，因此導致大尺度大氣環流的異常。當ENSO最強盛時，祕魯、智利發生洪水；印尼、澳大利亞則出現乾旱現象。在冬季發展成熟的ENSO，相位的變化對台灣以及整個東亞的影響是我們研究重點。 研究先挑選Nino3.4做這次ENSO的指標，從適合月份的角度去探討ENSO的變化，再討論到冬季的時間尺度分析做對照；接著吾人以正負0.8標準差，分類ENSO事件變化造成的環流場，配合CWB的地面測站資料來了解台灣冬季降雨與ENSO的關係，發現全球一月大氣變化與ENSO變化較一致，且台灣西部受ENSO影響較台灣其他地區來的明顯。並且再研究南海與ENSO對台灣的相關，是否也是影響台灣冬季降雨變化的原因之一。再與東南亞比較，了解ENSO不只造成近赤道雨帶左右移動，還會讓西太平洋的降雨南北震盪。 ENSO is a very important climate phenomenon which plays an important role in interact atmosphere and sea. The research shows that wil happen every 2-7 years, temperature of eastern Pacific Ocean increase, the cumulus will convert more vigorously. Because of the different location of latent heat was released into the atmosphere, it affects the atmosphere circulation. When ENSO is stronger, Peru will happened flood, and there will caused drought in Australia and Indonesia. The first step of my research, the best choice of ENSO index, is Nino3.4. According to the long-term Nino3.4 temperature history record from NOAA reanalysis data, a significant inter-annual variation of ENSO is clearly standout. Based upon the Nino3.4 sea surface temperature, relative El-Nin ̃o/La-Nin ̃a are separated into four regions by adopting the 0.8 standard deviation of SST variance. Followed by the precipitation data of Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan, to understand the variation of atmospheric circulation and Velocity potential in ENSO events, and find out the relationship between Taiwan winter rainfall and ENSO. And I analysis the temperature of South China Sea, to find out will it affect the rainfall of Taiwan. And keep comparing with others place to know the oscillation of west Pacific Ocean by ENSO changes.
