氣候變遷對台灣地區地表水文量之影響; The effect of climate change on the land hydrologic cycles in Taiwan

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题名:	氣候變遷對台灣地區地表水文量之影響;The effect of climate change on the land hydrologic cycles in Taiwan
作者:	田維婷;Waiting Tien
贡献者:	水文所
关键词:	極端化;氣候變遷;溫室效應;漸變試驗情境;平衡試驗情境;地表水文量;land hydrology;global warming;climate change;scenarios
日期:	2003-06-18
上传时间:	2009-09-22 09:51:19 (UTC+8)
出版者:	國立中央大學圖書館
摘要:	I 摘要因為溫室效應的關係，全球氣溫正逐漸上升中，溫度升高會造成氣候系統的變異，進而對水文循環造成影響，如降雨的改變、蒸發散加強、逕流和土壤水分減少等，甚至極端的天氣事件如乾旱、洪水的發生頻率加大，如此一來，全球勢將面臨極嚴苛的水資源及環境問題，身處其中的台灣亦不例外。因此為了更加了解氣候變遷對於台灣地區的地表水文量的影響，本研究先建立一水收支平衡模式，根據經濟部水利署之水資源分區，計算各分區內之降雨、逕流、蒸發散與地下水入滲等主要水文分量，配合不同氣候變遷預設情境的輸出值，模擬未來受氣候變遷影響下台灣地區之降雨量、逕流量、蒸發散量和入滲量之可能變化。透過考量數種不同的氣候變遷預設情境，主要是為了使結果能互相比較並提供未來的水文研究進一步之參考價值。本研究分析結果如下，目前台灣本島平均年降雨量約為928 億噸，蒸發散量為314 億噸，地表逕流量為414 億噸，地下水入滲量為200 億噸。本研究在受氣候變遷衝擊部分顯示，雖然不同模式間預測值有差異，然大部分案例顯示降雨與逕流有極端化之現象。台灣地區之地下水入滲量以長時間來看有漸減的趨勢。 Due to greenhouse effect, the gradual increase of temperature has been found to be an important factor changing the global climate. The possible outcomes of climate change will be the increase of precipitation, surface runoff, and evapotranspiration, the decrease of soil moisture, and the high frequency of extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts. However, the results at a global scale may not reflect the outcome in regional scale, or in an even smaller scale like the island of Taiwan. Therefore, it is worthwhile studying the effect of climate change on the hydrologic cycle in Taiwan. In order to effectively estimate the impact of climate change on land hydrology in Taiwan, a simple water balance model is developed to account for precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and groundwater infiltration of the land hydrologic cycle. Under different climate change scenarios, it is applied to access the impacts of climate change on these land hydrologic processes. Daily temperature and precipitation are major input data required for this study, while landuse conditions is used to account for land surface roughness. A total of nine climate change scenarios is applied to project possible climate variations in the future. Under current climate condition, the mean annual precipitation is around 928 billion tons, evapotranspiration is 314 billion tons, surface runoff is 414 billion tons, and groundwater infiltration is 200 billion tons in Taiwan. The simulation results indicate that: Although predictions by different GCMs or region climate model are different, the trend of more extreme precipitation and surface runoff can be seen in most cases. Since groundwater infiltration is closely related to evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and rainfall, the amount of groundwater infiltration in Taiwan has a great possibility to gradually decrease under the impact of climate change.
显示于类别:	[水文與海洋科學研究所] 博碩士論文

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