氣候變遷會影響氣溫變化及降雨型態進而對農作物生長及其產量造成改變，目前對於氣候變遷於作物之影響大多使用作物生長模式做模擬及探討，作物生長模式有許多種，本研究所使用之作物模式為DSSAT(The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer)。本研究針對該作物模式所需之氣象資料建立其日氣象資料繁衍模式，配合作物模式推估未來桃園地區稻米一期作產量，探討其影響。而氣候變遷亦會對水田灌溉需水量造成影響，因此本研究利用DSSAT模式模擬之作物生長天數推估在未來狀況下，溫度及雨量的改變對於桃園地區稻米一期作灌溉需水量之變化。在氣候變遷下，不考慮未來二氧化碳濃度變化直接影響，且耕種日期不變，利用DSSAT模式模擬桃園地區一期作稻米產量，模擬結果得知各情境之稻米一期作產量均有增加的趨勢，近未來(2020-2039年)之產量改變率介於0.52%至2.33%之間，遠未來(2080-2099年)之產量改變率介於2.84%至7.86%之間。利用DSSAT模式之生長天數推估未來灌溉需水量，模擬結果顯示，在大部分的情境下，桃園地區稻米一期作未來的灌溉需水量改變量不大，其原因是溫度上升會導致作物需水量增加造成灌溉需水量增加，但是溫度上升也會導致生長天數減少，進而使得灌溉需水量減少，進而抵銷增加之效應。The change of temperature and rainfall patterns caused by climate change will change the growth and the yield of crops. Most of researches assess the impact of climate change on crops use the crop growth model. In this study, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software package was used. For the weather data of input in DSSAT, the model to generating the weather data was proposed. Then, the impact of rice yield of the first period crop for the future in Taoyuan was assessed. Climate change also affects the irrigation water requirements of paddy rice. Therefore, this study estimates the change of the irrigation water requirement of the first period crop for the future in Taoyuan with growth stages. Under climate change, without considering the direct impact of the future changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide, and the planting date remains the same, the results show that the production of rice has a trend to increase. The changing rates of the yield in the near future (2020-2039) range from 0.52% to 2.33%. While the changing rates of the yield in the far future (2080-2099) range from 2.84% to 7.86%. Under most climate scenarios, the change in irrigation water requirement is not obvious in the future. The reason is that on one hand, the rise in temperature leads to crop water requirement increase that caused the irrigation water requirement increase, but on the other hand, the rise in temperature leads to reduce the growth days that caused the irrigation water requirement reduce, and then offset the effect of increasing.
